Footy Forensics: Swans v Eagles

It's Heath Grundy's 250th game so punters can expect the Swans to be switched on from the opening bounce at the SCG against what will no doubt be an equally determined Eagles side out to avenge their R1 loss to Sydney.

I'm anticipating a very (very) hot footy for four quarters let's have a look what Stats Insider is predicting in terms of game score.

SI has the Swans winning this by 11pts 86-75. I concur. 

Sydney has dropped Robinson and loses McVeigh to injury, recalling Allir Allir and Kieran Jack. McVeigh's composure across half back and just in general is a loss but young Florent's game last week across half-back says he is capable of filling the void.  

The Eagles have a host of changes with Darling and Barrass both out injured (Ah Chee and Hutchings omitted). In comes Masten, Shuey and Ryan all back into the side with young key forward Jarrod Brander coming in for his first game. 

Of the 10,000 simulations run by Stats Insider, the Swans are winning 63% of games which makes the West Coast Eagles slight value at the H2H market at the $2.65 price. 

Given how they have played so far this season it is tempting to really like this price about the Eagles, they are sitting alone on top of the ladder after all. 

The Swans are an occasion team and the 250th game of a club stalwart played at home against the ladder-leaders, is just the kind of game Sydney kick into fifth gear for. 

For mine, they are slightly too short at the $1.50 price in this market, but I do see the Swans winning so I can't have the Eagles despite their value. 

This Line is also super tempting for the Eagles particularly considering the Swans seldom play well at the SCG. The Eagles' ruck dominance should also help them to remain with a few kicks. 

I think this Line is absolutely bang on. I'd lean to the Eagles holding this +13.5pt margin but only just, the variable of Darling being out really is difficult to factor in as he has such a chain reaction effect throughout the whole team. 

This market is where I think the most value lies. This game will be super contested with both defences fighting and scraping like their lives depended on it and in that environment, I always take the Under. 

As you can see the SI models have struggled to glean much value from what looks like a very tight contest between two good teams. 

Were Darling in this line-up I'd be probably swayed into taking the Eagles with that +13.5pt Line with a lot of confidence but given that the Eagles now don't really have that vital link it is difficult to see how they move the ball freely against what will be a very committed Swans side. 

Expect Sydney to lift for their champion backman and win this by a few kicks in a low-scoring game. Unders looks the best play in a game where I am struggling to identify much value. 

Swans by 10. 

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