Footy Forensics: Swans v Crows

With Rory Sloane joining the Crouch brothers on the sidelines this crucial Swans v Crows match will come down to one main question: Can the Crows second-tier midfield lift themselves up enough to compete with the Swans for four quarters?

If the likes of Ellis-Yolmen, Douglas and Greenwood can help Bryce Gibbs and break even at clearances then the Crows have a forward line that can trouble the Swans here.

They also possess a defense that can contain (relatively speaking) Buddy Franklin providing the ball is not living down there. Let's take a look at some of the intangibles before we check in with what the data is saying;

• Crows In's and Out's: Crows lose Betts, Sloane and Mackay to injury while Fogarty has been omitted. They have brought in Riley Knight, Andy Otten and young mid-fwd's Galluci and Poholke.
• Sloane a big out but his last few games have not been the normal Sloane output. Feel the markets have overreacted to Sloane being out based of his recent form.
• Swans In's and Out's: Nic Newman and Allir Allir have both been omitted with Harry Marsh and Gary Rohan coming into the side.
• Swans bottom six don't find a lot of the footy so plenty is going to be left to four or five Swans.
• ANZAC Round always guarantees there is heat on early so expect tackling and defensive pressure to be on early but both sides have selected to have legs once the game opens up in the second half.
• Sydney ruckman Sinclair may be in form on the stat sheet but he is yet to play a recognized ruckman so far in 2018. Expect that Jacobs will be dominant.
• So far this season teams that have been sub-par the week prior have come out and responded the next game, just as the Crows did against Richmond in Round 2 after a R1 fade out to Essendon.

So far it is looking like a really close game between a travelling side needing a response and a home side which seldom surrenders an inch.

Stats Insider is predicting the Swans to win this by 20 points so let's take a look at the H2H market.

Of the 10,000 match simulations SI ran the Swans came out on top in 71% which is reflected in their $1.30 H2H price.

I have to say I just can't look past that $3.60 for the Crows in this market - not too long ago they were far and away the best team in the AFL and whilst they have lost some key personnel, there is still enough in that Adelaide side to be ultra competitive.

If I like the Crows to win it (which I tentatively do) then giving them +23.5pts start is simply too good to refuse. Even if Buddy kicks 4-5 goals I just don't see anyone else bobbing up in that forward line for the Swans which will make it difficult for them to kick away and cover that Line.

The Crows do slingshot footy better than anyone and the Swans are seriously undersized down back up against Walker/Jenkins/Lynch so i'm confident the Crows can hold that line even if they fall just short of winning the game.

As we've touched on, both of these teams can score quickly and I can see the points being piled on late in the second half as two good exponents of the slingshot go to work. Both teams can hit 90pts here which is all that's needed to cover the Overs at 173.5pts.

The absence of stars in the SI Punting Predictions (no stars = no bets for SI) highlights just how close this game should and likely will be. Despite the lack of stars I like all three predictions - Crows with the +23.5pt Line appeals the most with Overs next in line followed by the juicier Crows H2H bet.

Adelaide were really poor last Friday night and have had a whole week to sit and stew on it. I expect they will come out with a very determined mindset and will play the four quarters out. Expect the same for the Swans.

Crows by a kick in a Friday Night corker!