Footy Forensics: Swans v Cats
Last updated: Jul 5, 2018, 4:57AM | Published: Jul 4, 2018, 11:01PM
Can the Cats finally take a big scalp away from home and prove to the footy world they are a premiership threat by taking the points against the Swans at the SCG?
Despite their amazing midfield it really is hard to see Geelong winning this given they couldn't account for the Swans in R6 when Sydney travelled down to Kardinia Park and won by 16pts...without Buddy!
And it is not just R6 that gives me pause - last Friday the Cats couldn't beat a Bulldogs side who had no ruck and just a semi-functioning forward line!
Still, Stats Insider has this being close come final siren tonight with the Swans winning by just 6 points 82-76.
Swans lose Isaac Heeney which is a big loss, also Rose and Rohan come out. Fringe first graders Towers, Fox and Robinson come in.
The Selwood brothers are finally back together with Scott being named for Geelong. Jones comes in also with Cunico and Parsons the two players omitted.
Net win at selection for the Cats which is why the Line and H2H markets drifted in their favour late Wednesday evening, but those changes assume Scott Selwood won't break down in the first five minutes which given recent history is a risky assumption.
Of the 10,000 simulations run by the Stats Insider models, the Swans are winning 58% of games which makes the Cats the slight value play at the $2.60 quoted in the H2H market.
Expect that Hewett goes to Joel Selwood. What Scott Selwood does is anyone's guess after so long out I'd be surprised if he goes straight into a hard tag but if he goes to the out-of-form Hannebery he won't have to work too hard to shut him down.
I have this sneaking suspicion that Callum Sinclair is going to absolutely destroy Rhys Stanley in the ruck tonight which almost alone is making me lean heavily towards the Swans.
Big lifts from Jack, Florent, Jones and McVeigh tonight will more than compensate for Heeney.
We saw last Friday that even when Geelong's midfield is on fire, they were still struggling to win and eventually got beaten by a Bulldogs side who outworked them.
Swans are coming off a gallant loss to the white-hot Tigers and if they can repeat that effort here they will win comfortably. 
SI has spotted a decent edge in the Line for Geelong (57%) at that +11.5pt mark.
I do expect this game to be a low-scoring affair and quite close in the finish so that start for Geelong does appeal. Geelong can throw Harry Taylor back into defence if they are leaking points so they are likely to remain inside that 4 goal margin throughout the game.
Better value at the Under for mine but certainly Cats at the Line is the best bet value-wise from Stats Insider in a game offering little value.
Really liking the Under tonight. Sydney seldom gives up a big score and with Grundy/Rampe likely to keep Hawkins/Danger relatively quiet, it seems likely Geelong won't see 70pts.
That just leaves the Geelong defence and the Franklin factor which is ever present. No Heeney does hurt Sydney both on the scoreboard as well as moving the ball inside forward 50 and as I mentioned above, Geelong can Swing Taylor back into defence at any time to stop the bleeding.
Stats Insider has identified the value is about the Cats tonight but as you can see with the multiple 'no bets', it is not a game that presents much value either way.
The biggest edge from SI is the Cats at the Line (+11.5) whilst I can see this game being a hard-fought low-scorer so I like the Under as the best bet.
Swans H2H may not be the value play but I can't see them dropping this one.
Sydney by 8.
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