Footy Forensics: Swans v Blues

Indigenous Round starts at the SCG with Lance Franklin, the best key forward in the game, looking to repeat his heroics from R23 last season when he kicked 10.2 and gathered 25 disposals against Carlton. 

The Blues have brought in Silvagni who is likely to be used up forward and on the ball whilst the Swans have brought in Newman and Rohan. 

The big question here is just how well can the Carlton defence stand up against the Swans forwards? Can the Blues on-ballers break even and stem the supply to Franklin and co or will it be the Buddy show again?

Stats Insider is predicting a very comfortable 45pt victory for the Swans tonight 102-57.  

But will they? 

Over the last month the Blues have beaten Essendon and lost narrowly to the Eagles and the Cats so I am not dismissing the scenario that Carlton not only break even in the middle but dominate the clearances. 

If they can avoid Grundy going inside forward fifty they will be able to impact the scoreboard. 

Of the 10,000 match simulations run by the Stats Insider model, Sydney is winning a whopping 90% of games. Despite this dominance, Carlton are still the (slight) value play H2H but I just can't see them winning this one, nor can I have the Swans at that price. 

Looking elsewhere. 

This is where some value can be found. Stats Insider has Carlton holding that Line 55% of games. I agree. Short of a Franklin freakshow, the Blues will hold that line and it looks the bet of the game for mine. 

Grundy can't be everywhere for Sydney so if they are smart and hit up their small forwards they can have scoreboard impact. I can't see the Swans going much past the 100pt mark which makes Carlton's job quite easy - kick 8 goals for the game and cover the line. 

Stats Insider has identified slight value to be found in the Overs here but I don't tend to take Overs on Friday night's, as a rule, they tend to be lower scoring contests. 

As you can see SI doesn't see a lot of value tonight. Personally, I think the Blues to hold the line are a solid bet and pretty safe. 

Buddy may kick 5-6 goals but that is likely to be the final margin. Kruezer, Cripps, Curnow - the Blues midfield is very underrated and they can keep things close for at least a half. 

Hard to make up 50+ points in just two quarters. 

Swans by 28. 

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