Footy Forensics: Suns v Blues
Last updated: Jul 28, 2018, 1:15AM | Published: Jul 27, 2018, 1:08PM
These two sides have not had much to smile about in season 2018 but that won't stop punters enjoying the big green smiley face staring at them from the Under in the Total Points market at Metricon tonight.
The Blues have lost key defender Liam Jones and livewire midfielder Zac Fisher whilst for the Suns David Swallow, Brayden Fiorini and Jack Bowes all return. Three big inclusions for the home side.
Stats Insider likes the Suns to go back to back for the first time since Round 2 and popular opinion has certainly been with the Suns after teams came out Thursday evening.
Losing their key backman in Jones is a massive loss. No Levi Casboult as well which means Thompson will get Curnow and May can play off McKay.
But the biggest factor that punters have to consider here is the dew-factor. No not the coach, the surface. Gold Coast winter days are amazing but in the evening the dew arrives and will make that ball very hard to handle.
That brings the Under right into play but first, let's look at the H2H market.
Of the 10,000 match simulations run by the Stats Insider Model, the Suns are predicted to win 70% of games.
After the Suns' dominant display last week against the Swans, the model has found no value whatsoever in the H2H market despite this game being between 17th and 18th on the ladder.
Yes, the Suns should win and win well, and that is certainly the popular opinion, but punters should remind themselves that the Suns are, well, the Suns.
Moving the ball, kicking in general, making decisions, scoring, winning - these things are all difficult for both these sides which is likely why the model wants nothing to do with either at those prices.
This is where we start to find some value with the model highlighting an edge at the Under. It is a small edge but one that the model feels confident in betting and with the Gold Coast dew combining with the general lack of skill these two sides possess it is difficult to mount a case against loving the Under.
As with the afternoon doubleheader in Melbourne, most footy fans will be glued to the action (but distinct lack of value) at Adelaide Oval.
The occasional glance at the scores on the Gold Coast to check that both sides have not learnt overnight to move the ball well and kick straight should make punters who trust the model and bet the Unders here feel doubly good while they are watching the Crows and Dees fight it out.
We are currently providing free predictions for every AFL game when you make a Stats Insider account. Sign up now to get free access to everything.
