Footy Forensics: Storm v Sea Eagles

There is a different look and feel about the Storm this season. This week, in particular.

After growing accustomed to no Cooper Cronk, Cameron Smith won't be out there this week either leaving Billy Slater as the 'Big 1' to take on the Sea Eagles.

Not only that, the Storm aren't coming in as the feared monster they have done in previous years.

After losing to the Dragons a fortnight ago and running much closer than expected to the Titans last week, a famous Craig Bellamy spray was no doubt on show at some point throughout the week.

With a bit of a gee up from their coach before playing in front of their home crowd for the first time in three weeks, the Storm are primed and ready.

That's not good news for the struggling Sea Eagles with the Stats Insider Model heaping more hurt before kickoff.

Through 10,000 simulations of the match, the Model has the Storm winning 62% of the time.

With a 38% chance at victory Manly's $2.79 odds look like they're worth a shout, but it's always risky business betting against the Storm head-to-head when they're at home.

Even with Smith out and a few injuries, their 70% win rate at AAMI Park can't be ignored.

However, their $1.47 odds can.

It's at the Line where we could see some action with the Model leaning towards Manly covering the +6.5 spread.

It's not a huge surprise the lean is only slight given the form of the Sea Eagles and the fact the Storm can unleash at any moment no matter how many first-choice players are missing.

Reading into Manly's win over the Broncos at Suncorp last week is dangerous.

They had lost the previous five matches and overcame a very poor Brisbane side on the night.

The win doesn't hide the fact their forward pack isn't up to NRL standard and the backline - as good as it can be - doesn't get enough quality ball to manufacture points. There's only so much Marty Taupau, the Trbojevic brothers, and Daly Cherry-Evans can do.

Chances are it won't be enough to cover the +6.5 spread let alone take the chocolates back to the Northern Beaches to hit on the $2.79.

The Storm pack is just too good while the backline can run in tries all night if the foundation has been laid before them.

Tim Glasby returns to an already handy pack headed by the massive Nelson Asofa-Solamona and always-reliable Felise Kaufusi, Ryan Hoffman and Dale Finucane.

Once they take care of Manly's two-and-half decent forwards, Cameron Munster, Will Chambers, Josh Addo-Carr and Suliasi Vunivalu will have all the time and space they need to pile on the points.

In doing so, the 40.5 total comes into play. However, the Model fancies the Under in 59% of the 10,000 simulated matches. At a rate that high, it's coming in as a value bet and it's not hard to see it coming in.

Melbourne have the fourth-best defence in the NRL keeping teams to just 15.9 points per game.

That number drops to 12 points per game when playing at home with none of the four opposing sides managing to put more than 14 points on the Storm at AAMI Park.

There's plenty there to put some faith in the Storm to cover the -6.5 spread in this one, but the Model pushes us to the Under.

With the Line not all that convincing no matter how you look at it, this is one to #TrustTheModel and side with the Under.