Footy Forensics: Saints v Tigers
Last updated: Jul 20, 2018, 1:44AM | Published: Jul 19, 2018, 1:45PM
A Richmond side in white-hot form against a St Kilda team who have lost the one weapon that could have exposed the Tigers - I'm sensing a yellow and black mauling tonight under the roof at Etihad!
The loss of Jimmy Webster will hurt St Kilda immensely. His precision kicking from half back was one of the only weapons the Saints could wield against a Richmond side who will be fuming about dropping last week's game against the Giants.
Stats Insider has the Tigers winning this comfortably by 26pts but if St Kilda are not careful this game could be an absolute blowout.
St Kilda lose Jimmy Webster and Jack Lonie to injury but have recalled Seb Ross and Josh Battle. Despite both those players being good in's, the loss of Webster cannot be overstated.
St Kilda now rely on lesser distributors to penetrate the famous Tigers defence.
For Richmond, Houli goes out injured but they get Broad and McIntosh back who are both solid contributors.
Of the 10,000 simulations run by the stats Insider model, Richmond are winning 76% of games which makes St Kilda the value play at the $5.75 quoted in the H2H market.
They may be technically value the Saints but I really have this sneaking suspicion that the Tigers will thump them tonight.
St Kilda's inexperienced forward line will struggle to get on top of the Richmond defence whilst the Tigers forward pressure will ensure the Saints leak plenty of points on turnover.
The SI model has identified a solid edge for the Saints at the line with the +34.5pt start resulting in a win in 59% of games.
I do enjoy, and have many times this season, taking advantage of large lines against the Tigers but in this case, I am loathe to touch the Sainters.
Webster's loss we have spoken about, Rance's dominance we have touched on also, but the third factor is perhaps even a larger factor - Richmond should have beaten the Giants last week but couldn't convert in front of goals.
They will not make that mistake two weeks in a row.
Not a lot of value in the Totals market. Stats Insider has identified a slight edge in the Under (54%) which I do like. I expect that St Kilda will be held to under 50 tonight but I am wary of a massive blow out by the Tigers.
One star for the Saints at the Line with the +34.5 is what the Stats Insider model is saying but I am just really wary of a big statement game from the Tigers tonight so I'll be largely staying away from this one.
My gut is telling me Tigers get very, very angry here and demolish the Saints by 50+.
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