Footy Forensics: Saints v Giants
Last updated: Apr 30, 2018, 4:43AM | Published: Apr 27, 2018, 2:04AM
All aboard the Greater Western Sydney express!!
No Josh Kelly still for the Giants and a home game for the Saints have combined to give St Kilda the appearance of hope where none exists here - the Giants are on the cusp of something special (yes, Bruce 'speeecial).
To the intangibles;
- St Kilda In's and Out's: Saints lose Roberton and have dropped Lonie and Marshall but get some good forward in's with Membrey and Weller. Hunter Clark also comes in.
- With no Roberton and Webster for the Saints the pressure on Shane Savage and Jarryn Geary to be both defensively accountable drive offensively is immense.
- Giants unchanged, Coniglio playing game 100
- Giants back six have started to gel which was the last piece of the puzzle for them after losing their two damaging half back flankers in the off season.
- Dawson Simpson will be dominant here, ran into sandi first up but has the Saints ruck division more than covered giving the Giants on-ballers first use.
Of the 10,000 simulations run by Stats Insider the Giants are predicted to win 66% of the time, making St Kilda the value play at the $3.80 H2H price. I can't have the Giants at that H2H price but not because I think there is any risk of St Kilda winning, because they are just that much more value at the line.
This +23.5pt Line for the Saints will be mowed down quicker than Eric the Eel in a 50m pool. The Giants forward line of Greene, Patton and Cameron will destroy the depleted Saints backline.
The Under/Under is right on for mine. Expect this to be really hot early but then break out late and if someone was twisting my arm I'd take the overs only just.
Going to deviate from the Stats Insider predictions on this one. It might be a vibe but I'm getting it big time that the Giants are on the cusp of really tearing a team apart and unfortunately for the Saints I think it will be this game.
Giants by plenty.
