Footy Forensics: Saints v Demons

Will St Kilda continue their woeful recent form or do they have a bounce-back game in them against a resurgent Demons side?

That is the big question heading into this cracking game of Sunday afternoon footy that looms as a tricky game for punters. 

Assuming there are not eleventy-five late changes as has been the penchant of coaches in recent weeks, Stats Insider has the Demons winning by 15pts. 

Petracca is back in for the Dees whilst the Saints recall Armitage, Clarke and Marshall but lose Acres. Sinclair and White have been dropped. 

Of the 10,000 match simulations run by Stats Insider, the model has Melbourne winning 67% of games which makes the Dees slight value at the $1.45 quote. 

I can see Max Gawn having a huge game again here so it is hard for me to consider the Saints on recent form and Gawn factor. 

Here is where I don't mind the Saints. As you can see there is not much in this spread according to SI but with the Demons recent set shot inaccuracy (and general point-kicking trend in the AFL right now), coupled with the lift I expect from the Saints, +17.5pts could be a very handy line. 

Talk about being right on the button! No value about the Total Points market according to SI here with the model tilting towards Under by just 1%. Until I see teams kicking straight I'll err on the side of Unders as well. 

I can't disagree with SI. I like the three bets the models have highlighted. They have slight value but that is all it is, slight. 

Expect that the Dees continue on their winning ways on the back of a really dominant effort by Gawn but if the Saints come out wanting to respond to the flood of criticism that has come their way this week then this game will be close. 

Dees by 6.