Footy Forensics: Saints v Blues
Last updated: Jul 13, 2018, 1:44AM | Published: Jul 12, 2018, 11:15AM
Punters can thank the merciless (and often misguided) Melbourne footy media for the juicy value about Carlton tonight as the Blues look for redemption (at veeeery appealing prices!) against the Saints at Etihad Stadium.
The Blues have been whacked from pillar to post by everyone (and their aunties) after what was admittedly a pretty embarrassing loss to Brisbane last week.
Just as they responded after their loss to Fremantle with a gutsy loss to Collingwood, so to will they respond here by taking it right up to a St Kilda side who have next to no key forwards to kick to.
Ten changes across the two sides at selection shows just where these two teams are at - all over the shop. Kade Simpson returning for the Blues is massive whilst the Saints lose McCartin who was just starting to find his feet up forward.
The resulting hole left in that St Kilda forward line will allow a 'Goldilocks' type scenario for Blues defender Liam Jones to be able to do what he does best without being exposed for what he does worst.
Carlton will feed off his aggressive intercept marking which will mean good supply to the likes of Curnow and McKay.
Make no mistake, Carlton are right in this game.
Of the 10,000 simulations run by the Stats Insider model, St Kilda are winning a whopping 71% of games. This still makes the $3.40 H2H price for Carlton the value play though.
The more I look through these lineups and matchups the more I see a 50/50 contest.
Carlton have not played poorly two weeks in a row all season and after the serve they have copped this week you can absolutely guarantee they will play out this game to the end.
Kreuzer will absolutely smash Hickey tonight.
Stepping back though, as all savvy punters should, this is Carlton we are talking about and one cannot go into a game confident of anything where the Blues are concerned.
I like the value about the Blues tonight H2H but for mine, the bet is at the Line.
Three and a half goals will be plenty against a St Kilda side with a worrying lack of goal-kicking prowess.
The Saints are relying on Membrey and Gresham to each bob up for 3-4 goals and when that is your Plan A you just know things aren't going great.
I expect this game to finish within a kick, two at most so that +21.5pt Line to the Blues looks like the play of the night.
The model is not as bullish as I am, mind you, identifying only a small edge at the spread.
It's very hard to have confidence in the Totals market tonight. The track at Etihad is conducive to the Over but these two teams couldn't hit the backside of a barn which brings the Under back into play.
Almost zero edge from SI in this market.
For Stats Insider this is a 'No Bet' game but my spidey senses are feeling a big bounce-back performance by Carlton tonight.
Like them at the Line (+21.5pts) which I feel will come in closer to bounce so jump on early. H2H worth a sneaky go as well.
Blues by a kick.
We are currently providing free predictions for every AFL game when you make a Stats Insider account. Sign up now to get free access to everything.
