Footy Forensics: Rabbitohs v Dragons

The Dragons were meant to feature in the game of the round last week, but it turned out to be a flop. Their match this week against the Rabbitohs should make up for it, though.

At the time of writing, the Stats Insider Model can't split the two sides.

Through 10,000 simulations of Rabbitohs v Dragons, the Model is spitting out a draw and a 50-50 chance for both teams to win.

For punters, that makes for great reading.

The Dragons are the top team in the competition so naturally, they carry a pretty hefty line into games against anybody that isn't the Storm.

The Rabbitohs opened at +6, but that soon dropped to its current +4 on the back of some heavy backing early in the week.

Still, the Model is all over the Bunnies despite their line falling as we get closer to kickoff.

The Dragons may have just beaten the defending premiers by 20, but the Rabbitohs at +4 is something worth getting behind.

First of all, Sam Burgess is back. 

He's been struggling to stay on the field without being suspended. However, when he is out there, he's outstanding. His Round 7 performance against the Raiders was arguably the best of any forward this season and with two weeks rest in his legs, you know he's going to come out firing in this one.

Second, the Bunnies have been fine without him.

There aren't many teams that can meet the Dragons in the middle of the field and put up a fight. Souths can not only hold their own, they can win the battle of the heavies.

They've been dominant all season and as a result, Damian Cook and Cody Walker have been brilliant behind them. 

St George undoubtedly has the better squad overall. Six of their guys will be playing State of Origin while almost everybody else will be representing their country over the representative weekend in June. But they're going to drop a few games throughout the season.

While the Dragons carry some value H2H at $1.60, it's the Rabbitohs at +4 that's the play.

Back them to keep it close.

And while you're at it, back them to keep it low-scoring, too.

The Model loves the Under at 40.5, and for good reason.

With both teams sending such strong packs out onto the track in this one, much of the game will be spent in between the two 20-metre lines. 

Provided both teams hold onto the football and don't make errors coming out of their own end, neither side is going to have an easy time getting up the field.

There are plenty of points in both backlines. It's getting them the ball in attacking positions that might be the problem.

Given the form of the two packs heading into this bruiser, the Model is pointing out two plays in this one.

Souths +4 is a real chance. If they don't manage to cause the upset, they are certainly good enough to keep it close.

With it close, the Under is also a good option.

Expect a slugfest and one that sees Souths announce themselves as a genuine top-four possibility regardless of the end result.

There might not be a countdown clock in the corner as we wait for this one to kick off, but it's going to be a beauty.