Footy Forensics: Power v Tigers

No Dusty, no chance - that has been the (over) reaction of the markets ahead of tonight's clash in Adelaide between a Power side that just can't get things right and a Tigers team that has seldom put a foot wrong so far in 2018. 

Richmond are flying. In the last two weeks they have thumped an in-form Essendon and beaten St Kilda playing two (crucial) men down (Houli, Reiwoldt) for majority of the game. 

By comparison Port were coming off a bye two weeks ago and failed to beat the very beatable Hawks last Saturday.

Somehow the Tigers are $2.15 outsiders and I can't for the life of me figure out why. 

In teams news Port get Jasper Pittard back who will help with run and drive off half back but the big news at selection is that Dustin Martin is out for the Tigers, as is Jack Graham. Miles is a good inclusion I expect him to have a big game. 

Martin has not been absent from the Tigers team for 83 games, so it is understandable that markets would react a little to his absence but for mine they have over corrected.

Of the 10,000 match simulations run by Stats Insider, Port are winning 61% of games which makes their $1.72 H2H price the (slight) value play according to the data. 

As reluctant as I am to stray from the SI model, I just can't have the Power. Not even at home against a Dusty-less Tigers team. 

I have tried, believe me I have, to find chinks in the Richmond armour this season but the truth is that there are none. At least not against a side like Port Adelaide. 

The Power lack the foot skills to deliver out of their backline under pressure and will get killed on turnover when they inevitably attempt it. They also lack the leg speed through the middle and will get hurt on the fast break. 

Final factor is that no side wants to be seen to be relying on one player so the absence of Martin will, I think, strongly motivate Richmond to win this game. 

Anytime the Tigers are getting a Line to hold I'll be looking very seriously at it. Port have played some good footy this season but it has been patchy and I doubt they will be able to wrest momentum back from Richmond as easily as they did against the Crows in the Derby. 

Richmond will play for four quarters which makes that +4.5pt start solid value. 

It is a very small Total. 140.5pts makes a 71-70pt game a win for the Overs which is quite tempting. A little too tempting, that's less than 3 goals each side per quarter. The SI model has this Totals market bang on the money but if the skies in Adelaide clear before bounce then the Overs have definite appeal I think. 

I'm not happy about going against the model to kick off Round 12 but I just feel Richmond have been by far the more consistent side this season which matters in these big Friday night clashes. 

Richmond's form line stacks up and I know exactly what I will get whereas Port have often been horrible for one half then brilliant the next. 

Tigers to prove that Dusty is surplus to requirements against a team like Port. 

Richmond by 18.