Footy Forensics: Power v Demons

Port Adelaide have been playing well, but $1.65 favourites against the Demons come on turn it up! I don't care if it's at Adelaide Oval, it could be in Kochie's backyard with INXS playing live and I'd still like the value about Melbourne in the H2H and Line markets. 

Clear skies in Adelaide awaits punters tonight with no rain about so expect there to be 50,000 packed into the Adelaide Oval, eager to watch two teams contest a really hot footy, particularly early doors. 

But this game will open up in the second half, and when it does I think the Dees will go bang. 

Port have recalled Jonas (Hombsch dropped) which brings their defence back to full strength. Melbourne have brought in Dom Tyson and Tim Smith for Spargo and Pederson. 

Pederson was a bit of a passenger against the Dees but I thought Spargo provided good run and defensive pressure so it will be interesting to see how they replace that here. 

The Stats Insider models predict the score to be 92-80 to the Power. 

Of the 10,000 match simulations run by the Stats Insider model, Port are winning 64% which makes them the slight value play in the H2H market. 

But here is the problem I have with Port - they are slow. 

Wines, Ebert, Rockliff, Powell-Pepper - none of these guys are breaking any land speed records which doesn't matter if Ryder is winning hitouts but in a game where you are playing Max Gawn it absolutely does. 

These taps will not be halved which makes on-baller speed and acceleration a premium and the Dees have plenty of that. 

If the Dees can contain Port early and stay in touch on the scoreboard then in the second half I can see them really exposing Port's lack of run and dash over the ground. 

Odds should be much closer to a 50/50 contest which for mine makes the Dees a value play. I expect they respond to that Queen's Birthday loss with a really strong game here. 

Such is Port's home record and current form, not even a +8.5pt start get Stats Insider excited about the Dees. 

I am a little more bullish about them so naturally, I like them to hold this Line. Yes, the Dees can get exposed by key forwards (just look at how they made Mason Cox look like Tony Lockett last week!) but I expect there to be a lot better pressure from the midfielders tonight which will negate that crisp delivery that exposes the likes of Oscar McDonald and Hibberd. 

Of course, this is Melbourne we are talking about and while they have come a long way this season, old (bad) habits die hard and in the cauldron of Adelaide Oval, there does exist the chance that the Dees revert back to their former selves. 

I am backing them in though, I expect the Dees to respond here and stay with Port, possibly kicking past them late. 

Not a lot of value identified in the Totals market by Stats Insider. Suspect that it will go over that 168.5pt mark but too close for my liking, more value elsewhere.

Let's face it there is not heaps of value about tonight in Adelaide but I am deviating from the SI model and taking the extra value in the Demons H2H, as well as the Dees at the Line, in what I think will be a bit of a shootout late. 

Dees by a kick. 

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