Footy Forensics: Power v Bulldogs

Will it be another wet weather footy night in Adelaide or will the rain stay away and gift the Power a chance to mow through that 37.5pt Line that the depleted Dogs have been given? 

That is the biggest question facing punters heading into the opening game of Round 13. If it remains dry the Power should dominate, but that BOM forecast says the rains are on their way, predicted to hit right on bounce time. 

The weather factor makes things tricky. The smart play is to wait, watch the radar closer to bounce and get the best assessment of how the game will flow. Let's check out what the model is saying.

Stats Insider predicted score has Port winning comfortably by 35pts. While weather information is a variable that is factored into calculations, the closer we get to bounce the more accurate that variable will be. 

Something we can discuss is teams news; The Bulldogs have dropped their main ruckman in Roughhead which means Trengove and Boyd must now try and combat Patty Ryder. They will get smashed. 

Adding to the Bulldogs woes are injuries to experienced defenders Matthew Suckling and Dale Morris. Losing their leadership, not to mention Morris' defence and Suckling's foot skills out of defence, cannot be understated. 

To complete the pain quaddie for the Doggies Tory Dickson is also out injured. He is their most accurate forward in front of goals and a real link for them at half forward. 

Port, on the other hand, have dropped Watts and Neade despite beating the Tigers last week. They also lose Jonas to injury but have covered all three outs with Thomas, Marshall and Hombsch all capable replacements.

Of the 10,000 match simulations run by Stats Insider, the Power are winning 86% which makes the Bulldogs very slight value at the $6.50 price in the H2H market. 

It will be very interesting to see what happens to this market closer to bounce if it starts raining buckets. There could possibly be some value to be gleaned from Port if Punters see it more as a 50/50 contest in the wet. 

Ryder's ruck dominance makes it virtually impossible for the Dogs to win this whether it is wet or dry, so any increase in that $1.12 odds could really start to become appealing. Another watch. 

 +37.5pts is a long Line to be giving up especially with rain clouds looming large, but remember that is what we all thought three weeks ago when the Crows crushed the Dogs right here at Adelaide Oval in torrential rain. 

the Bulldogs missed plenty of chances in front of goal, as they have done all season, and the Crows just kept slotting them. There is every chance that history will repeat here which makes me reluctant to like the Dogs with the start even in the wet. 

If conditions remain dry the Power will cover that spread I think, they have too much firepower for the Dogs up forward, especially with Ryder helping them win it out of the middle all game. 

Wet or dry I cannot see the Bulldogs kicking a big score here. In fact, I don't see them scoring much past 50pts. The variable is the Power - they could score 70 if it is wet, or 120 if the rain stays away. I like the Overs if there is no rain. 

Rain adds uncertainty to any game but specifically here in a contest where markets have one team being very dominant in dry weather, it is difficult to have confidence. 

Port win this it is just a question of by how much and that is linked directly to hard much rain falls for mine. 

Check the weather sites and check back on the Stats insider Match Page late for updated modelling and info. 

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