Footy Forensics: Melbourne vs Geelong

Expectations are running high at both ends of the Princes Highway as Geelong make the trip to the MCG to face the Demons in what shapes as the game of the round for round one of the AFL season.

Patrick Dangerfield will not line up for the Cats after he suffered a hamstring injury in preseason, but shiny new-and-returning recruit Gary Ablett is good to go after he too recovered from a hamstring strain. Todd Viney and Tom McDonald were ruled out for 6-8 weeks through injury. Jake Lever will debut for the Demons after a highly publicised offseason move from Adelaide.

Geelong has enjoyed a sustained period of domination over Melbourne in recent times, winning 12 of the past 13 matches with seven of those by over 50 points. This Demons outfit however is a much more tough prospect than it's been for quite some time, and head into the encounter as slight favourites.

Melbourne has enjoyed plenty of media praise in the lead up to this clash after an impressive showing in the JLT Community Series. Max Gawn shapes as a difference maker, and Geelong will find it tough to match up with the ruckman considering their own weaknesses in the same area.

The Demons are winning 55% of simulations according to SI's model, but Geelong's $1.96 price is tempting for a team with more cohesive chemistry and a more proven track record. It is no surprise Melbourne also cover the -1.5 spread 54% of the time.

This Melbourne team looks a lot different to previous iterations and have a legitimate chance to iron themselves out as a contender. They're coming in with far more positive momentum, and Geelong have plenty to prove themselves after being humiliated by Richmond and Adelaide in September last season.

For Geelong athletic tall Esava Ratugolea, mature-age recruit Tim Kelly and Lachie Fogarty will make their senior debuts at the MCG against the Demons.

With both teams boasting quality in midfield, it'll be a question of which team can take a stranglehold of the middle of the ground and provide better service to their forward lines. If Gawn and the Demons take a hold, Geelong might find it difficult to keep up with them.

With Ablett slotting in where Dangerfield normally plays, it's as close as you can get for a like-for-like selection in the 2016 Brownlow Medallist's absence. If Geelong's midfielders outside of Ablett and Captain Joel Selwood can make an impact, that will give Geelong an opportunity to take control.

However they will still be tested defensively, with Lachie Henderson sidelined, Andrew Mackie and Tom Lonergan enjoying retirement questions will be asked of the back six who stand in their absence.

Mark Blicavs might find himself with a permanent defensive role, and huge questions will be asked of Jake Kolodjashnij and Jed Bews who line up in the pocket and back flank. It'll be up to Harry Taylor and Tom Stewart to lead the way as they adjust to life without Lonergan and Mackie.

All the signals indicate a tight contest awaits, with Unders the likely outcome. Most things point to Melbourne on paper, but can they deliver with the whole football world watching?