Footy Forensics - Magpies v Tigers
Apr 30, 2018, 5:25AM
The footy world knows what Richmond will bring, but can the Pies repeat their efforts over the last fortnight despite coming off a very short turn around to out-pressure the Tigers at their own game?
That is the big question that needs answering for mine going into this belter of a game at the MCG between the two highest pressure sides in the AFL.
Assuming the Pies aren't impacted by the five-day turnaround from ANZAC Day, and I very much am assuming that in my assessments, I can see Collingwood really taking it right up to the Tigers.
Stats Insider has the tigers winning by 9pts in a relatively low-scoring affair.
Pies get a boost in forward line personnel with Blair and Mayne coming into the team (Crocker, Varcoe out) whilst the Tigers get a big boost with Vlastuin, Graham and Caddy all coming back into the team (Ellis, Lloyd and Townsend out).
We know this game will have intense pressure, that is what both sides pride themselves on, being hungrier for longer. But which team will last longer in this one?
Of the 10,000 match simulations run by Stats Insider, Richmond are winning 60% of them, making Collingwood the sharp value play in the H2H market at the $2.65 quote.
Stats Insider likes them for value but I think Collingwood can win this so I'm loving that outsider price.
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Magpies are holding that +13.5pt line 55% of games according to Stats Insider. I can't see the Magpies faltering in the pressure arm wrestle that will be present all game so I expect the final score to be very close. That Line is appealing even to punters who like the Tigers to win.
How can anyone take overs in this climate of horrible misses in front of goal?
The behinds have been coming thick and fast over the last two rounds and I expect them to continue here given the pressure on the ball carrier. Going with Stats Insider's 57% Unders assessment happily.
It's not often that the SI model and my gut align perfectly but that seems to be the case here. Whilst SI has the 'no bet' up in a clear indication of the closeness of this game, my thoughts are that Collingwood with the 13.5pt Line is a pretty safe play today.
As I said at the top, I think the Pies are not just value but good things today H2H. I have spotted chinks in the Richmond armor that they have gotten away with last three weeks and I expect Collingwood to expose them here.
Magpies by 4 in a low-scoring corker of a game at the G.
