Footy Forensics: Magpies v Kangaroos

There will be no shortage of motivation at the MCG this afternoon as the Kangaroos, currently sitting ninth and desperate to remain in the hunt for finals, take on a Collingwood outfit just as desperate to cement their place in the top four. 

Both sides are coming off honourable losses with North Melbourne in particular highlighting the effectiveness of a Brown/Daw/Ziebell forward line against the Swans. 

That North forward trio will really trouble the Magpies who are very undersized in defence so the task ahead for Collingwood, and the big question mark of the match, is whether the Magpies can dominate out of the centre enough to negate North's advantage. 

The Stats Insider model is predicting a relatively close, high-scoring game with the Magpies winning by 13pts 92-79.

Before we have a look at the individual markets let's go over some of the intangibles impacting this game;

• Collingwood have recalled Sam Murray and Mason Cox at selection, omitting youngsters Daicos and Crocker. 
• Cox will straighten Collingwood up and provide headaches for the North defence whilst Murray's selection in particular highlights Collingwood's intent to play fast, attacking (and counter-attacking) footy against a side that has been opened up on turnover by Essendon and Sydney over the last fortnight. 
• An unchanged side for North despite a last-start loss to Sydney. 
• The Kangaroos will fancy their chances of exposing what is a very undersized Collingwood defence. If they can equalise centre clearances / stoppages then Brown and Daw will really trouble Collingwood. 
• Ruck battle will be crucial today - Goldstein has been in solid form but if he is not at his best today, Grundy will dominate the hitouts and ensure Collingwood are racing that ball out of the centre. 
• Forecast is good and both teams have plenty of motivation to win this one so let's see what the stats are saying. 

Of the 10,000 match simulations run by the Stats Insider model, Collingwood are winning 65% of games which makes them the slight value play in the H2H market at the $1.52 price.

Collingwood's starts have been sensational in recent weeks and if Grundy can get on top of Goldstein the Magpies will put a big score on North. The predicted score of 92pts for Collingwood looks right on the money but what is less clear is just how North will be able to move the footy and potentially expose what is a big weakness in the Collingwood defence. 

As you can see there is scant value at the Line in this game with the slightest of edges favouring the Kangaroos at the +13.5pt mark. 

A strong case can be made for North to keep this game close given the forward line advantage mentioned above as well as their desperation to sap a two game losing streak and stay in touch with the top eight. 

With Tarrant and Thompson down back (and the ability of Daw to go into defence as well) the Kangaroos are well positioned to stop any early bleeding that may come from a first quarter Collingwood surge and turn this into more of an arm wrestle or sling-shot style of game. 

If they can do that they will hold that +13.5pt line. 

Again, the dearth of value continues in the Totals market with the model unable, after 10,000 simulations, to find any type of edge from this very tightly set market. 

With Collingwood's clearance dominance and North's forward line advantage a case can be made for Overs but with the intangible of desperation for both sides being in play (Collingwood to remain in the top four and North to re-enter the eight) an equal case can be made for the Unders. 

No bets in this game from Stats Insider but an interesting watch for punters in the twilight rounds of the season. 

If Collingwood can't find a way to arrest their defensive issues then there could well be cash to be made in the coming rounds. 

Stats Insider has the Magpies winning with the Kangas just holding that line. 

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