Footy Forensics: Magpies v Eagles

The star forward trio of Kennedy, Darling and LeCras have returned for the Eagles in a game that means a lot more to West Coast than many may think - today's crucial clash against the Magpies will be the last time the Eagles run out onto the MCG this season.

...unless they make it to that first day in October that is. 

West Coast wants this game very badly if only to prove to themselves that the MCG is no longer the horror venue it has been for them in recent seasons. 

With their forward line back to strength and Collingwood missing a few key troops in Treloar and Dunn, West Coast might never get a better chance.

Selection has been kind to the home side as well with Varcoe and Moore both named to return (Appleby, Crocker make way). Moore gives coach Nathan Buckley great flexibility whilst Varcoe's best is still right up there in terms of run and pressure. 

For the visitors though it is party time in that West Coast Eagles forward line with Kennedy, Darling, Waterman and LeCras all returning. Ah Chee (unluckily), Vardy, Ainsworth and Allen all make way.

A massive net win for West Coast at selection. It still remains to be seen if they can click straight back into that top gear they were in earlier in the season, or if Collingwood will even let them. 

That is the big question today - will we get an Eagles forward line that is still a little rusty first game back or will West Coast's star goal kickers come straight out and dominate in their return games?

Of the 10,000 simulations run by the Stats Insider model, Collingwood are winning 59% of games which makes the Eagles the value H2H play at the $2.55. 

I wouldn't be surprised to see West Coast's abysmal record at this venue cause that price to drift even closer to the $3 mark prior to bounce. 

The flow-on from Kennedy and Darling returning is that McGovern returns to his more favoured position in defence. 

Collingwood missed Dunn last week but they will miss him even more today. 

There is not one positional battle that is not fascinating this afternoon, this match will be a cracker which both the model and I predict will be decided by less than two kicks. 

I like the Eagles today to upset the Magpies who just feel like they are on the crest of a slump but they have proven to be very resilient this season - as we saw from the Tigers last night when two good, desperate sides meet it is all about accuracy in front of goals.

This, for mine, is the bet of the game and according to Stats Insider, it is where the most value is to be found as well with the model highlighting a decent edge at the spread for the Eagles. 

This will be close so having a two-goal head start at the $1.91 is a gift that should not be passed up lightly. 

Less value at the Over/Under with the model suggesting that 165.5pt Totals mark is spot on. I expect a really hot footy today so I'd be leaning Under but with the value about at the Line, there is no need to risk a coin-toss bet here at the Totals.

The model has been on fire in recent weeks so when it aligns with what I am thinking it's a no-brainer for me. 

West Coast are the value play at the H2H and Line markets today with their forward back to full strength against an undersized Collingwood defence. 

The Eagles' best is good enough today. West Coast by 6. 

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