Footy Forensics: Magpies v Cats
Last updated: May 12, 2018, 7:01AM | Published: May 11, 2018, 10:53PM
The bookies have not got a lot right so far in R8 but I think they have this game about right in terms of the Cats favouritism.
Gary Ablett Jnr, Zac Smith and Harry Taylor all back in for Geelong means that structurally they are almost full strength. Tom Hawkins out but expect that just means Dangerfield will get plenty of time at FF.
Daniel Wells returns for the Magpies but with Pendlebury and Grundy both carrying niggles, Wells underdone and the fact that Collingwood have had a huge month all make me cautious about the Pies being able to maintain their high standards over the last few weeks.
Stats insider agrees with models predicting the Cats winning a close one by 5pts 89-84.
Of the 10,000 models run by Stats Insider, Geelong are winning 56% of them which makes the Magpies the (slight) value play at the $2.30 quote.
Both sides don't offer enough value for mine so i'm looking to other markets.
Once again we see a really tight spread with the Magpies getting the +7.5pts winning just 53% of games according to the models. Just is not enough value here for mine if Collingwood bring their best.
This is the bet of the game for mine. I like the Overs here with both sides having plenty of avenues to goal. Might be tight early but I can see this game being a bit of a shootout late.
The SI model has identified the Pies are slight value but with the Cat's in's and the many factors discussed above I can see a pretty decent chance of Geelong coming out and putting four quarters of really good footy together that puts a bit of a scare through the comp.
Cats by 12+ with Overs the play.
