Footy Forensics - Magpies v Bombers

In my own small ANZAC Day homage, I am seriously considering taking the Magpies to beat the Bombers, and nowadays taking Collingwood in consecutive weeks is about as courageous as a sports punter can get.

Collingwood have struggled in recent seasons to back up and repeat great wins like the one they had last week in Adelaide, but today against Essendon I believe they have an excellent chance.

Stats Insider is still with the Bombers however. Only just.

Of the 10,000 match simulations run, Stats Insider has the Bombers winning 52%, which makes them value at the $2.00 H2H price. But, as you can see, the stats are telling us this game will be frighteningly close whichever way the ball bounces.

Hard to look past the Bombers at the $2.00 price given how even the contest appears but I have some serious question marks on the Essendon midfield.

Yes they smacked the Power out of the middle last week, but Port had no ruckman, let alone the best ruck in the comp right now in Grundy.

The Bombers lost badly to both Freo and the Bulldogs out of the middle in recent weeks, and I can see that happening again here with the Magpies on-ball brigade of Sidebottom, Treloar and Pendlebury.

If the Magpies dominate the clearances, I can't see the Bombers enjoying the same type of forward entries that allowed them to get on top of Port last week.

The meager +2.5pt Line for the Bombers has increased the Stats Insider win percentage to 56%, a close game, it reckons.

I still cannot have the Bombers.

If Joe Daniher continues his poor form, and Sidebottom does to Zach Merrett what he did to Rory Sloane last round, the Magpies will win comfortably.

A dominant game by Merrett/Daniher brings the Bombers right back into contention, however so, you'd think this will be Collingwood's focus; shut down Merrett and ensure Essendon forward delivery is under as much pressure as humanly possible.

My instinct here tells me it will be Unders, but again, look how close the simulations have this - just 51% of games coming out Under the 180.5pt mark.

As we saw last night in the Tigers/Demons game, the ANZAC factor can bring substantial periods of the game where no scoring happens, and that combined with the general trend of horrible goal kicking accuracy this round, it is easy to like the Unders with a little confidence. 

These two teams can produce shootouts but I just can't see either team being embarrassed in front of 100,000 at the MCG.

Given how close the game is expected to be, it's easy to see why SI likes the Bombers, but I have a real concern over their midfield. Collingwood's is bigger and better and that will translate into clearance dominance for large parts of the game, giving the Magpies the edge.

If they make the most of that edge, they win. Magpies by 8 in a low-scoring ANZAC Day corker.