Footy Forensics: Magpies v Blues

Collingwood could not have been more impressive last start against Melbourne, nor Carlton less so in their embarrassing loss to Fremantle. 

Despite this seemingly large disparity in form, footy's oldest rivalry arrives at the MCG bearing gifts for punters savvy enough to know where to look. 

Stats Insider is predicting a 33pt Magpies victory, 102-69. Six goals would normally be a dominant win but when a team is getting an almost 50pts head start they must be considered strongly at the line, no matter how one-sided the contest appears. 

Collingwood has recalled Flynn Appleby with Daniel Wells the man to go out. This is a net win for the Magpies given Wells played almost zero part in their win last week through injury. 

Carlton has made some statements at selection, as well they should have after that first half 'effort' last week. 

Darcy Lang and Nick Graham have both been dropped while Sam Kerridge and youngster Patrick Kerr are out injured. In comes Aaron Mullett, Jarrod Garlett, Cam Polson and Matthew Kennedy.

Much better balance for the Blues particularly up forward.

These four Blues and their 18 other teammates are playing for their coach this afternoon. A really insipid loss is likely to cost Brendan Bolton his job, not to mention many Blues their careers, so I am expecting a big response from the boys in navy today. 

Of the 10,000 simulations run by the Stats Insider model, Collingwood are winning this game 82% of the time, making Carlton by far the value play at $9.50 in the H2H market.

This game could go one of two ways; either Carlton will respond to the heavy criticism they have copped all week and fight and scrap in every single contest for four quarters (as is usually par for the course in these Pies v Blues matches) or the Magpies will jump the Blues early and the game as a contest will be over by quarter time. 

Even in the latter scenario, as we saw from last week's game when Carlton was down by 50+ at halftime, the Blues lost the second half by just 7pts. 

Expect that this game is tight early and the longer that happens, the better the Blues look at the spread. 

With a +48.5pt Line, Carlton are winning 62% of games according to the SI modelling. That is enough to warrant a 'star' bet. 

That is a huge spread to cover for Collingwood in a game that will be fiercely contested. Even if Carlton weren't playing for redemption, the Blues always lift for games against the Magpies. 

In the last five matches between these two teams, the biggest winning margin has been 24pts (in Round 3).

There is less value in the Totals today but the model has still uncovered a decent edge at the Overs. 162.5pts is just over 20pts per team per quarter. 

Given the value about at the spread I won't be looking too much at the Totals but certainly for punters chasing a little bit more value, Blues +48.5pts/Overs does appeal given what the Stats Insider model is telling us. 

Value hunters can lock in the above as they are all solid value plays according to the model. 

Punters are being gifted a rare monster line between these two sides, on the back of the really polarising last-start form. Collingwood could not have been better whilst Carlton were borderline pathetic. 

Players will readjust naturally to bridge that form gap but the markets are judging this game on last-start form which offers punters considerable value.

Blues at the Line is the bet folks. Collingwood by 30. 

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