Footy Forensics: Lions v Kangaroos

With superstar North midfielder Shaun Higgins ruled out at selection, the cash came for the Lions post teams Thursday which has resulted in the model liking the value about the visitors at the Gabba today. 

In a not-so-super Saturday for punters, the Kangas 7% edge at the +4.5pt Line looms as one of the highest of the day. A lack of green smiley faces should make punters wary though. 

The model doesn't hate the Kangas H2H nor at the Line, but it hasn't exactly jumped on board either. 

The Lions can be a difficult team to read at home and if North aren't switched on for four quarters that +4.5pt start won't be nearly enough. 

Pre-teams on Thursday the line was +3.5 and I cannot help but suspect the market has under-reacted to Higgins' absence and just how important he is to everything North do. 

The model is expecting this game to go right down to the wire with one point separating the teams after the 10,000 simulations were run. 

With no Jacobs, North have lost their main tagger which will allow Zorko and Beams to heavily impact the game. Expect that Ziebell will come into the midfield and try and plug that Higgins gap as much as possible but he is a lesser player. 

Harris Andrews has had a game back now and he and McStay should be able to contain Brown/Waite. 

Not a lot of value at the Totals market. It is a high total due to the 228pts that were scored at Etihad in R8. 

The average totals points at the Gabba this season has been 174pts from 9 games, but that is with a really scrubby 67-49pt game against the Swans included. 

North at the Line is the biggest edge the model has identified value wise, but in a game that is forecast to be so close, there is not a lot of confidence behind it. 

Looks the story of the day. Sunday will be better!

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