Footy Forensics: Lions v Bombers

One of the value bets of the weekend await punters at the Gabba with the visiting Bombers getting gifted an incredibly small spread to cover against a Lions side down on key personel. 

Stats Insider likes the value in the Bombers to cover the -7.5pt Line at the $1.91 quote and I wholeheartedly agree so let's take a deep dive into why it's such a good bet today. 

As you can see the Stats Insider model has projected an 18 point victory to the Bombers so it's understandable the model is loving that single digit spread. 

The Lions will struggle to cover the loss of not just Charlie Cameron but also Mitch Robinson. Both are crucial in the roles they perform. Cameron's absence will hurt them both on the scoreboard, it will also mean Zorko probably has to spend more time forward to kick those goals that Cameron kicks. 

Robinson's loss will hurt more though. He is their pressure barometer and can also play important run-with roles which will release Zach Merrett to wreak havoc on Brisbane all day. Two huge losses. 

The Bombers lose Zaharakis but it's the inclusion of Mitch Brown that I find fascinating as it means Hurley will be allowed to play that loose third defender role and on his milestone 150th I expect he will have a huge impact on the game. 

Of the 10,000 simulations run by the SI model, the Bombers are winning 67% which makes them the value play in the H2H market. The value play by some way in fact - that $1.65 is not to be dismissed or scoffed at, on the contrary, it may be the bet of the game. 

With the +7.5pt Line, the Lions only improve their winning percentage by just 7% according to SI which means the Bombers are covering the Line 60% of the time making them worthy of a 'star' as you'll see in the Punting Predictions section of the Match Page. 

Personally, I'd take the $1.67 H2H I think that offers more value given that the Bombers have only been convincing for 3 games this season and they are playing in Brisbane where the Lions' emotions can lead them to play some inspired footy. 

SI slightly favours the Overs in the Total Points market but in a game that offers so much value elsewhere, I am steering clear of this one. Just not sure how many points are in the Lions sans Cameron and with Hurley lurking across the half-back line.

That H2H bet would have to be frighteningly close to earning a star rating given the 67% win ratio but for punters who bet Stats Insiders star's this game is all about taking the Bombers at the -7.5pt Line. 

There is some forecast weather about in Brisbane on Sunday so 'star' punters be sure to check back with Stats Insider prior to bounce to see if any inclement weather has precipitated (you're welcome) a change in the model. 

If the skies remain clear I expect that Essendon sends Hurley off with a strong win. Bombers by 20+