Footy Forensics: Knights v Panthers

The Panthers have been decimated by injuries to the point they were barely able to put together a 21-man squad this week. Nevertheless, they've found enough players to send to Newcastle and play the Knights in the always talked about 6 pm time slot.

For those needing to rush home from work to make kick off, you might want to get a jog on because this one is set to be a beauty.

Through 10,000 simulations of Knights v Panthers, the Stats Insider Model has spat out a win for the Knights - but it won't come easy.

Penrith are the better team when healthy, but injury list keeps growing:

• Dylan Edwards (shoulder, season)
• Waqa Blake (ankle, round 14)
• Nathan Cleary (knee, round 11)
• Tim Browne (bowel, retired)
• Sam McKendry (knee, season)
• Josh Mansour (cheekbone, indefinite)
• Jack Hetherington (suspension, round 11)
• Moses Leota (pectoral, round 17)
• Trent Merrin (in doubt for round 10)

Injuries in games you can accept. Even a couple during training can be dealt with. But the Panthers injury crisis reached farcical levels last week when Merrin injured his finger in the warm-up.

The uncertainty around the Panthers combinations - on the edge, in particular - are a cause for concern. It's the jumbling of lineups that justifies a lean towards the Knights in this one.

Getting the Knights at $2.25 looks like a steal, but the win won't be a walk in the park - if they win at all.

Even with the injuries, the Panthers have one of the best performing forward packs in the NRL.

James Fisher-Harris is demanding a Kiwis jumper with his form while Viliame Kikau has become the 80-minute beast we all knew he would become. If Trent Merrin ends up playing, his rotation with Reagan Campbell-Gillard and James Tamou will cause the Knights all sorts of trouble. 

That's where the question marks about the Knights winning, and covering the +2.5 spread comes in. 

The Model is in love with the Knights at +2.5, but they're going to need to offer up a little more grunt in the middle to get it done.

With no team conceding more metres than the Knights, a strong pack like the Panthers is assured of field position. As good as Kalyn Ponga is, he can't complete the sweeping moves down the lefthand side of the field if his team is being kept in their own half for most of the game.

The final team lists announced an hour before kickoff will be the key to this one. If Merrin is there, expect the Panthers pack to dominate the middle and therefore limit Ponga's attacking chances.

Not only that, it would give James Maloney the field position to manufacture the points Ponga can't.

When it comes to the Total, the Under looks good regardless of who ends up topping the scoreboard.

The Knights always dig deep in front of their big crowds at home while the Panthers have slowed down in their scoring in recent weeks as they wait for Nathan Cleary to return next week.

This is a match that will feature all the "arm-wrestle" and "one for the purists" cliches.

Decided in the middle and won on the outside.

When those are trotted out, the Under is always a good option. However, in this case, it's not the best.

As appealing as the $2.25 H2H odds are at home, the Model only has eyes for the Knights +2.5 Line in this one.

The Panthers are third on the ladder for a reason so expecting the Knights to take the chocolates is always a brave call. It's not farfetched that the keep it close enough to cover the spread, though.

Merrin's inclusion is the kicker. If he's not there, the Knights Line is the play. But if Merrin does suit up, Panthers to win at $1.67 can't be ignored.

Whichever road you go down, strap yourself in for what is a darkhorse candidate for the game of the round. It will be a ripper.