Footy Forensics: Kangaroos v Hawks

Hawks games are becoming the footy roulette of 2018 - will we get the Hawks that got spanked by Richmond and embarrassed in the first quarter against Melbourne last week, or will we get the Hawks that snapped into gear after quarter time kicking ten goals straight and thumping the Dees?

Throw into that mix the resurgence of the Kangaroos who have been playing some great footy and the result looks likely to be a close, hard-fought Sunday afternoon at Etihad.

To the intangibles and there are a few here;

• Kangas have the one official change in Cam Zurhaar coming in for the youngster Davies-Uniacke but Shaun Higgins is a chance to be a late scratching (father-in-waiting) and Luke McDonald is battling a leg complaint.
• Those potential out's are huge for the Kangas and could really tip the balance heavily in Hathorn's favour.
• Hawks lose Poppy and Cyril, two big outs that will impact their forward defensive pressure. Ryan Burton comes back in along with James Cousins
• Impey will be absolutely key for the Hawks in this game with his closing speed, if he has a good game then Poppy and Cyril's absence won't be misses as much as it might.
• Expect Ben Jacobs to tag Tom Mitchell hard.
• Brown and Waite will really stretch the Hawks key defense, how Mirra and Frawley stand up against Brown and Waite will be key.

Of the 10,000 match simulations that Stats Insider has run on this game the Hawks are winning 56% of them, making the Kangas solid value at the $2.70 H2H price.

Hawks' best is more than good enough despite North's solid defense so far this season, but I can't have them at that low price against a Kangas team that is full of run and confidence.

That price for North will skyrocket if Higgins and/or McDonald are late out's for the Kangas and to be honest that information is essential to nailing this game. Early bets on this game are fraught with danger.

Should Higgins/McDonald both play this +13.5pt start for the Kangas looks solid. I expect this game to be very close should everyone line up as named and I can see the Roos being able to score well against that hawks backline.

Should there be late out's for North then the Hawks are very likely to cover that line. Higgins is a star and is omission will put a critical strain on the Roos clearances and scoreboard pressure ability.

Hawks games have been high scorers so far this season but being ANZAC Round i am predicting early pressure to be high after that Last Post sounds so Unders looks the play.

Stats Insider is expecting a total score of 183.75 meaning that the value bet here is to take the Under with an edge of 4.79%.

As we have seen the theme of this game hinges on the Kangaroos final 22. No Higgins and I think the Hawks win comfortably that's how crucial he is for North.

If they line up as named I can see the Kangaroos taking this right up to the Hawks and holding that 13.5pt line, even winning it if they kick straight in front of goal.