Footy Forensics: Kangaroos v Giants

If they didn't believe before the Kangaroos certainly do now after having Richmond on the rack last Sunday. North could and should have won that game and while they didn't get the four points, they got something much more important and that is belief. 

North are the bet of the round for mine in the H2H markets I was absolutely shocked to see them open near $1.90. Savvy punters and Stats Insider subscribers who took the early prices offered for the Kangas will be ecstatic but for those who missed out, there is still some value to be had here.

Giants are in all sorts of trouble here in Launceston. 

Giants lose captain Phil Davis as well as Matt de Boer who is also in the leadership group. Their loss creates a critical mass of top-end talent on the sidelines (Scully, Lids, Kelly, Greene to name just a few). 

Kangaroos are unchanged which reflects the settled confidence of the team currently.

Davis will leave a big hole in that Giants defence, expect Brown, Waite and I think critically Mason Wood will all have much easier times of it than they otherwise would have.  

Of the 10,000 match simulations Stats Insider ran North is winning 61% which makes their $1.61 quote the sharp (albeit slight) value play in the H2H market. 

It is also a great base for a 2-3 leg multi that hits that 3-1 mark. I am more confident about North here than I am about any other team this round. 

Jacobs and Anderson will both go to two of the Shiel/Coniglio/Whitfield trio that is holding the Giants together at present and completely shut them out of the game. 

That leaves Ward and an ageing Ryan Griffen to battle Higgins and Cunnington who are not only in white-hot form but will be getting first use from Goldstein who loves Tassie. 

North opened at -2.5 and have blown out to -10.5 in the 24 hours after teams dropped. I have the Kangas winning this by 3-4 goals so I still think this market holds value for North to cover the Line but obviously, the early bet was the play here (I said as much in the Match Page for this game on Wednesday). 

GWS will be predictable going forward to Cameron who Tarrant and Thompson can more than cover whilst the Kangas as discussed above will have no trouble applying scoreboard pressure. 

Betting on Totals have been fraught with danger in 2018 and as a rule, I'm reluctant to do it in Tassie as the wind is often a factor down there Saturday afternoons. Stats Insider is saying it's a coin flip so that is enough for me to stay away, especially when there is already enough value in the game. I'd take the Overs if I had to make a call I can see this being free-flowing late. 

Stats Insider can't find enough value to be confident in its bets here but I am loving that $1.61 H2H price for the Kangas. 

North by 20+.