Footy Forensics: Kangaroos v Eagles
Last updated: Jul 29, 2018, 1:30AM | Published: Jul 28, 2018, 9:53PM
The forecast for the Apple Isle is a windy and rainy one which historically means a close, low-scoring contest - two predictions that the Stats Insider model is all over today in Hobart as the Kangaroos host the Eagles at Blundstone.
In updated Teams news the Eagles have lost Josh Kennedy and Luke Shuey for this clash which has to blow the H2H and Line markets up. West Coast are now getting 10+ start (out from -3.5 Thursday).
Stats Insider is predicting a very close game with the Kangaroos just prevailing 84-81. If the rain sticks around those totals should be much lower, especially without Kennedy for the Eagles up forward.
West Coast have also lost Lewis Jetta so their polish coming out of defence is impacted. North will be absolutely desperate to win this game and stay in touch with the top eight.
Of the 10,000 match simulations run by the Stats Insider model, the Kangas are winning 54%. Neither side is fancied by the model at these prices but the Eagles have a very slight edge (2%) on the markets.
Unlike the H2H market, Stats insider is all smiles at the spread.
The loss of Kennedy and Shuey have scared the absolute be-jebus out of Eagles fanciers which has caused one of the biggest Line market shifts of the season.
Stats Insider is not so easily scared away, with the model identifying the Eagles winning 59% of games with that 10pt start - an edge of 9%.
In a game that is predicted to be close and that is forecast to be heavily impacted by rain and wind, those 10 points at the spread will seem like 20.
West Coast still have their defence intact, in fact, it has been bolstered by the return of Barrass.
The model has identified a small edge at the Under as well and with inclement weather combining with in-tact, desperate defences the Unders look a strong play this afternoon.
Even if the skies clear and North bring their best to Hobart, the West Coast back six have held up all season and they still have Darling as a focal point in attack.
Eagles can almost sew up a top two spot and a home final week one with a win here today and with a slippery surface likely to impact skills taking Eagles at the Line and/or Under look the solid plays.
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