Footy Forensics: Hawks v Swans

Will the rains linger past opening bounce tonight or will the MCG drain well as usual and provide us with some relatively free-flowing footy? These weather-effected games seldom have a clear answer until minutes before bounce but what we can do prior to that is to run through what the stats are telling us. 

At selection, the Hawks saw a net gain bringing back Henderson and Langford whilst the Swans have opted to play rookie forward Tom McCartin who I'm sure is thrilled about the prospect of debuting on a Frawley in the wet. Robinson also in for Sydney. Still no Buddy.

With these team changes and forecast factored in, the Stats Insider model has the Hawks on top by 11 points winning 74-63. 

Of the 10,000 simulations run by the SI model, Hawthorn are winning 63% of games which makes the $1.71 H2H price the value play in that market. 

Personally, I think the bounce-back factor is hugely in play here for Sydney who lost to North Melbourne last week and whose leaders like Dane Rampe have been publicly scathing of their collective efforts. 

I am expecting an extremely hot footy and for the Swans to scrap for every single contest so I see this one as much more of a 50/50 game which brings the Swans H2H price into much sharper focus. 

Sydney are unbeaten on the road this season and giving them even a small start on the road, with a bounce-back in play, in the wet, well it's just too good for me to pass up. I'm seeing the SI percentages above but what I'm feeling here is more a Mr. Kerrigan-like 'vibe' that Sydney will bring their best for all four quarters. 

One place where SI and I realign in our thinking is in taking the Unders. Thursday morning value hunters would have enjoyed a 140.5pt Totals mark but alas one of the bookies went outside on Friday morning and saw it was indeed raining so the Over/Under line has shifted lower to 136.5pts. 

Despite the decrease, I still think the Unders is the play here. With the situational pressure and the weather both combining to ensure contests are fierce, I can't see clean ball coming into either forward line for the majority of the night. 

Hawks can play wet weather footy with the best of them but the Swans for mine just have too many planets aligning here to pass up some Friday night value. The Tri-Bet (either team under 16pts) at $2.10 presents punters with great value and a lot more security it is well worth looking at here. 

Remember to check the BOM Radar closer to bounce to get the best sense of how long the rain will stick around. 

Sydney to remain undefeated on the road in a nail-biting low-scorer at the G.