Footy Forensics: Hawks v Demons

Righto let's try and find some value in what is a very tricky game for punters.

Which Hawks team will show up? Will it be the fumbly bumbly Hawks that were largely embarrassed by the Tigers last week, or the clean, intelligent Hawks that created a dynasty?

This is the biggest question of the game because the Dees are coming and if the Hawks play like they did last week the Dees will win comfortably.

In's and Out's

• The Hawks get Sicily back but have made a statement with Ryan Burton, Brand and Langford by dropping them all on form, bringing in mature ager David Mirra who has been dominant across half back for Box Hill for the least few seasons as well as Connor Glass.
• For the Dees Angus Brayshaw comes in for the injured Dom Tyson. Tyson's exit will pave the way for the likes of Petracca and Brayshaw to spend time in the midfield.

As you can see Stats Insider is predicting a very close contest.

The reason this game is so tricky comes down to the Hawks - I'm confident the Dees will bring an intensity and hunger to this clash and that Gawn will be dominant enough to ensure the Dees can get scoreboard pressure for their hard work at the contest.

But Hawthorn were horrible last week. I have seldom seen them play worse.

That they were still in it for so long is an indictment on the Tigers but for Hawthorn to be so fumbly and make such poor decisions under pressure was staggering.

The were poor against the Cats as well but got away with it, it's like they lost Silk in the first quarter and then literally lost their silk.

Despite this they are only slight $2.20 outsiders with the bookies.

Of the 10,000 match simulations run, Stats Insider predicts a Hawthorn win 43% which makes the Dees the value play at the $1.72 price

The Hawks best is good enough for this and given the statements made at selection this week i'd expect a renewed effort and composure, but the Gawn factor alongside what Hawthorn served up last two weeks is keeping me on the Melbourne express.

The Line market offers some for punters looking at the Dees with the -5.5pts start at the $1.91 but i'f miss the Line market and take the Tri-Bet (Either Team Under 16) if betting on margins.

This game has the potential for a shootout. Dees leak points to big forwards so Roughy could go big here, and with Sicily and Mirra down back Gunston can return to his favoured forward line.

Hogan and Co up forward for the Dees against an inexperienced back six for Hawthorn and the best tap ruckman in the comp ensuring congestion is minimal - all spells points it is just a matter of kicking accuracy in front of goals.

Overs the play though for mine despite SI slightly favouring the Unders.

Stats Insider is on the Dees but a lack of stars shows the confidence levels in a game that, as discussed above, hinges on how the hawks respond to what will have been fierce internal criticism all week.

Dees by a kick.