Footy Forensics: GWS v Western Bulldogs
Last updated: Apr 30, 2018, 2:22AM | Published: Apr 26, 2018, 6:13AM
A win for the Giants keeps their season alive while a win for the ladder-leading Western Bulldogs guarantee’s them a spot in the 2018 Grand Final, so it’s fair to say there will be a very hot footy to be won in the nation’s capital Saturday night.
With both sides having so much to play for this game is sure to be a low scoring one, dominated by gritty defence and never-say-die tackling. Right?
Wrong.
Yes it will be a hot footy in tight and tough but both these sides are adept at extracting the ball from congestion and turning that clearance into a shot on goal.
Translation – tough, fast, free-flowing footy.
Of the 10,000 simulated matches, the SI model predicts 65 points to be exceeded 55% of the time.
According to the simulations the expected Total Game Points on Saturday is 68.3 points (4.76% edge) so the value bet here is to take the Overs and enjoy each and every goal kicked no matter the team doing the kicking!
SI’s 10,000 match simulations saw the Western Bulldogs triumph 62% of the time which doesn’t surprise given how they have played so far this season.
Despite this dominance however I can’t help but sense that the $1.56 on offer for the Dogs in the H2H markets carries more risk than the percentage may indicate.
With the home side playing for their season and the Bulldogs coming of a very physical, brutal game last Sunday against Collingwood (GWS had a soft win in the west Sat afternoon) it is the Giants at the $2.45 price that I feel reflects the most value in the H2H market.
Tough to back against the competition leaders who have done nothing wrong all season though, so I am looking past the H2H market and toward the Line which looks much more appealing.
The Giants have played some very good footy this season, winning two of their three games played in dry conditions against Collingwood and Fremantle and losing by just one kick in their opener against Melbourne.
The Bulldogs defence relishes the long ball coming in but unlike most sides the Dogs have beaten up on, GWS have a trio of clever forwards in Staunton, Barclay and McWilliams that are very effective at combining to turn a mark at high half forward into a shot on goal.
I have no doubt they can really isolate the Dogs tall defenders and impact that scoreboard.
With clear blue skies forecast for Saturday and predicted final margin sitting inside the +8.5pt Line offered for GWS by Sportsbet, taking the Giants with a start looks a more astute bet.
