Footy Forensics: Giants v Tigers

After months of patiently waiting, punters finally get the all-conquering Tigers at the right price as Richmond head north to Sydney in search of their next Giant scalp. 

To selection and Richmond have lost three with Broad, Butler and Graham all out injured. Butler and Graham's tackling pressure, in particular, will be missed but Richmond's in's more than make up for their losses. 

Vlastuin and Houli slot straight into that half-back line which along with Short looks very strong. Bolton comes in to add some forward tackling pressure. Players like Jack Higgins and Daniel Rioli will need to have big games to compensate but they are more than capable. 

For the home side, Perryman and Finlayson have been cut while De Boer is out also (injured). Toby Green is the big in with Jacob Hopper and Adam Kennedy both capable of adding to the team. Net win at selection for GWS no doubt.

Stats Insider has this game being very very close but I am struggling to see how Richmond are not much (much) heavier favourites. 

With both Jon Patton and Jeremy Cameron unavailable for the Giants, getting the ball past Richmond's champion backman Alex Rance looms as the first of a few improbably tasks for GWS tonight. 

The second, and arguably much harder, task is moving the footy through the most intense, sustained pressure defence in the competition and into a forward line lacking star key forward power.

Sure Toby Greene returning will help GWS, but a Tiger-beating side does not one little angry (albeit very talented) Giant make. 

The third reason I'm bullish on the Tigers is the fact they don't tag which will mean Dustin Martin gets to do whatever he wants. 

Of the 10,000 simulations run by Stats Insider, Richmond are winning just 52% of games which makes the GWS Giants the value play at the $2.65 quote according to the model. 

Personally, I just can't see the Giants getting past the Richmond back six which looks as solid as it has all season. 

Yes, the Giants scored heavily on Hawthorn here two starts back and moved the ball well into Lobb but with all due respect to James Frawley and the Hawks, Rance and Richmond are in a different class. 

Tigers H2H at the $1.50 is the best bet of the game and for mine looks one of the bets of the weekend.

The Giants desperation to remain in finals contention will no doubt ensure this game is relatively close which does make that +10.5pt Line for the Giants appealing, but with the exception of the Eagles in Perth there is not one side that Richmond hasn't opened up this season. 

I do see that SI loves the Giants at the line with a massive edge (GWS winning 62% of games with the +10.5pt start) and given how frighteningly accurate the model has been so far in 2018, I really am loath to challenge it.

But backing against any side to contain Richmond has not proven fruitful in 2018 so I will be sticking to the Tigers at the H2H market and watching with interest to see how close the Giants can keep this margin.

Slight edge to the Over identified here but again, my big question mark centres around GWS' ability to impact the scoreboard with no Patton and Cameron there to keep Astbury/Rance occupied. 

It is rare that I stray too far from the accuracy of the SI model but I have watched Richmond all season waiting to see a chink in the armour. 

I have found only one.

I called the Eagles win over the Tigers earlier this season (at great odds as well just quietly) primarily because they have the foot skills and decision making of Hurn/Jetta etc to pull the trigger on aggressive, penetrating kicks out of defence which really cuts the Tigers zone up.

Against sides who don't have those foot skills coming out of defence, like the Giants, Richmond have dominated. They will lock down on the likes of Whitfield and Haynes then sweat on Shaw to gift them a turnover or ten. 

Suspect it will be all the much-vaunted GWS midfield can do to hold onto a respectable loss here against a side that knows it's the best in the comp. 

Tigers by 20. 

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