Footy Forensics: Giants v Eagles
Last updated: May 11, 2018, 9:43AM | Published: May 11, 2018, 3:14AM
Just how in the name of the Gary Snr and the Gary Jnr, are the GWS Giants such heavy favourites for this one? Sure the Eagles have not traveled well in recent seasons are but the Giants recent form has been horrendous.
A home ground will not re-correct that form. Cannot help that the absence of Luke Shuey and Nic Naitanui for the Eagles has combined to give punters pause about packing West Coast.
...those punters clearly did not watch last week's game in Perth, nor last Friday at Geelong.
The returns of Jeremy Cameron and Rory Lobb have no doubt added to the confidence about the Giants at the same time that Nic Nat/Shuey have detracted from the Eagles chances, but the Giants problems are deeper than getting a few key position players back.
Of the 10,000 match simulations run by Stats Insider the Giants are winning 62% of games. At that price the Giants are only very slight value but as I've mentioned above, the Eagles ability to cover for Nic Nat and Shuey makes them much more a value play.
Redden goes to another level if needed and Lycett will dominate Lobb.
My liking the Eagles H2H means I am really enjoying this +11.5pt Line. Giants have struggled against the key forwards this year so you can mark Kennedy down for 4-5 goals.
Eagles have been solid down back all season and with Patton out and no Greene it's fairly predictable where the ball is going.
Like the Overs in this game. Stats Insider does too with 55% of games simulated going over the 159.5pt mark. Giants have been unable to contain teams at stoppages regardless of who their ruckman has been.
Expect a free-flowing game of footy here.
I can see the Eagles winning well here so the H2H bet is the only market that the SI model and I have differed in.
Eagles by 20.
