Footy Forensics: Giants v Dockers

In recent seasons the results of a Dockers team travelling to Canberra to take on an undefeated Giants side would seem pretty clear cut but there is much more to this match than first meets the eye.

For starters the Giants are down one superstar in Josh Kelly! 

The Dockers are resurgent coming off back to back wins over Essendon and Gold Coast whilst the Giants are coming off a pretty brutal Battle of the Bridge last Saturday night against the Swans.

Let's start off with the predicted scores and SI has the Giants winning by 31pts 102-71, just 1.5pts inside the market line.

Before we really break this one down here are a few intangibles that can be added to the mix;

• Giants lose Josh Kelly but welcome back Toby Greene and what do you know, have finally picked a ruckman in Simpson who will look to mitigate the Sandilands influence.
• Dockers unchanged: Nathan Wilson comes up against his old side so expect plenty of drive and meters gained off half back from him.
• Forecast for Canberra predicting 4-15mm of rain to fall, mainly in the morning, but if showers linger around past midday the wet footy combined with the Sandilands factor could really start to bring the Dockers back into it.
• Docker Bailey Banfield has been unleashed as a tagger by Ross Lyon and has been very effective. Suspect he goes to Dylan Shiel here which will put plenty of pressure on Coniglio and Ward to get it done in tight.
• Sandilands was a colossus last week, he and Fyfe won the Dockers that game and if they repeat that effort here, which I think they can, the game will remain close.

Now let's rip into some data and there's not a whole lot of value about for either side at the H2H market according to Stats Insider. 

Of the 10,000 match simulations SI ran, the Dockers won 19% which fits there $5 odds but i'd argue that in this game with some weather about and Kelly out the Dockers are slightly overs at the $5 price so having a nibble here.

The Line market is really where I like the Dockers though.

As you can see the SI model is predicting that the +32.5pt Line for Freo is almost bang on with the Dockers holding it just 51% of the time.

But coming off a Sydney derby, sans Kelly and up against Sandilands/Fyfe in the middle, I just think that six goals is a huge ask for the Giants.

Their biggest strength is that potent three-pronged Patton/Cameron/Greene forward line but the Dockers have the match-ups for it so I just don't see the Giants' big weapons firing here.

To the Total Points Market and if (I stress the word IF) it is a fine and sunny afternoon in Canberra I do think the Overs is the play.

SI agrees with 52% of simulations coming out over that 170.5pt total.

The Dockers have moved the ball much better in 2018 and can now impact the scoreboard and we know the Giants will get up to that 85pt mark.

Any rain dashes my confidence in this market though.

As you can see from the lack of stars the markets are pretty bang on target in this game according to Stats Insider modelling.

As I've said above there is a good-to-strong argument to be made for Fremantle holding that 32.5pt line which is the bet ill be taking in this one.