Footy Forensics: Eels v Knights

This one is for the Rugby League tragics.

If you're fizzing for Eels v Knights, it might be time to go outside.

There aren't two worse teams in the NRL right now with the schedule-makers having nightmares over this being the only game played for the day. 

Nevertheless, footy is footy so we will hunt for value.

The Stats Insider Model is getting on the Eels, who at $1.52 to win, aren't a bad option for a multi.

They are without Corey Norman for this one, but that could end up being a good thing.

We saw last night with the Michael Morgan-less Cowboys how much better a struggling side can play when there aren't so many chefs in the kitchen.

It's down to Mitchell Moses and Clint Gutherson to lead that way and as a duo, they do have plenty of points in them on their day.

The Knights, however, are the opposite.

They are a one-man band with the 20-year-old Kalyn Ponga front and centre.

After a strong start to the season, the Knights have been exposed. Their middle is weak and as good as Ponga is with the ball in hand, as a team they're one dimensional. 

With the pack the Eels have and the prospects of Nathan Brown returning from injury, Moses and Gutherson will be getting a lot cleaner ball than what Ponga will be on the end of.

The Model doesn't think it will be clean enough to cover the -5.5 spread, though.

With what they dished up last week, it's tough to get excited about the Knights covering the +5.5 Line. Their +4 Line had people excited last week before Newcastle went on to get thumped 48-10.

The early-season Knights would have been a lock at +5.5, but it's not a big enough number this week - even against the 16th-placed Eels.

Likewise, the Model isn't in love with either side of the Total.

The lean is towards the Over at 39.5 which isn't the most outrageous idea.

It hasn't been often, but we have seen the Eels pile on points in short bursts this season. 

When they're on a roll, the Eels are hard to stop. And that's the issue for the Knights.

They give up more running metres than any side in the NRL and barely put their bodies in front of oncoming traffic last week. If they do the same again in this one, the Eels will find the line.

In a game featuring two very bad and frustratingly inconsistent teams, spotting any value is like finding a needle in a haystack.

The Model certainly can't find the needle; it's "No Bet" across the board.

All the signs are there to skip this one, but at the same time, a punt might be all that makes this game worth watching.

Playing the Eels to win into the Roosters at +1.5 tomorrow afternoon is an attractive option. 

If on the hunt for a single, wait for this game to open up and creep Over the 39.5 points Total.

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