Footy Forensics: Eagles v Tigers

Plenty of value about to finish Round 9 with the Eagles hosting a Tigers team that I think is on the crest of a slump. 

Nankervis (wrist) has been named and will play despite talk all week he'd be rested. Eagles get four good in's returning with Nic Nat, McGovern, Jetta and Sheed. All four play a crucial role for West Coast and their collective addition makes the Eagles very good odds to win this I think. 

Despite the Eagles being boosted by those in's Stats Insider has the Tigers winning by 7pts. I may be in a very small boat but I'm not so sure about the Tigers here. In fact, I think this game will be a statement game by the West Coast Eagles. 

So far this season Richmond have been the benchmark with daylight second so at first glance it may seem like the Tigers are great value at that $1.93 price. Stats Insider certainly thinks so with models predicting a Tigers win in 58% of games. 

But the Tigers are yet to play a team like West Coast this year. A very solid experienced defensive unit that can play tall or small and importantly, really effective key forwards, excellent ruck division and some on-ballers that are just as manic in their pressure as the Tigers are. 

With players like Hurn and Jetta the Eagles have the foot skills out of defence that can actually pierce the Tigers pressure game and from there it's just one kick into Kennedy/Darling and co. 

Not even Alex Rance can be in two places at once and if they rest Lycett or Nic Nat forward the Richmond defence starts to get very very stretched. 

Considering I like the Eagles to win outright there is not much value in taking a lesser price and giving up half a point to the Tigers so I don't fancy this market. Stats Insider loves it though. 

Of the 10,000 match simulations run by the SI model, Richmond are holding the line 59% of the time which at $1.91 is enough for SI to have confidence in the bet. 

Always makes me nervous when I don't #trustthemodel but in this game, I'm reasonably confident.

Given the closeness of the H2H and Line market's as well as the Stats Insider models predictions, taking an Either Under 16 (Tri-Bet) bet here looks both the value play and the smart play ($2.50 on TAB still as of Sunday morning).

The Total Points market is an avoid for me today. I can see at least the first half being really fierce at the contest with no space whatsoever for players which tends to lend itself to low-scoring games. 

The second half though I can see as being played in a much more open free-flowing fashion. Total of 171.5pts is right on. I'd lean Under but I'm leaving it altogether in this game. 

Stats Insider likes the Tigers and to be sure this game will be a ripper between two great sides. 

North showed last week that the Tigers are beatable but just couldn't hammer the final nail in the coffin. The Eagles team is better down back, up forward and in the ruck and I expect that the Eagles come away with a strong 2-3 goal win here. 

West Coast by 16.