Footy Forensics: Eagles v Suns

Ok I am more than a little excited about the value about for this one so before we start, I'd like to sing you a little ditty that might give you an indication as to the team I like tonight.

Little darling, it's been a long cold lonely winter
 Little darling, it feels like years since it's been here
 Here comes the sun
 Here comes the sun, and I say
 It's all right

And it's not just me who likes the Gold Coast Suns, Stats Insider is all over them like Banfield on a Hall as well!

Some intangibles first before we dig into the deep stuff;

• Three milestone men tonight with Hall playing his 100th for the Suns and Le Cras (200th) and Naitanui (150th) both celebrating big milestones for the Eagles.
• In's and Out's
  • Eagles welcome back Kennedy who is a huge inclusion, also Duggan comes back in. Hutchings and Ryan make way.
  • Suns just the one change, Bowes comes in for Hanley.
• No Hutchings for West Coast means Hall is much more likely to remain free of a 'hard' tag
• Gold Coast have been over in the west for almost two weeks now and have already played on Optus Stadium against Fremantle last Saturday.

As you can see above the Suns represent great value in the H2H market at $5.50 according to Stats Insider, who have the visitors winning this game in 25% of the 10,000 match simulations run.

Meanwhile the Eagles' miserly $1.15 is far too short to even consider.

Now before we go on I know that the Eagles have milestone men, I know the get Kennedy back and I know the Suns are, well, the Suns.

Despite these factors pointing to the Eagles (and crunching in their price) I can very much see an upset victory for the Suns here.

Suns have a deeper and more talented midfield, they have a ruckman who won't get pushed around by Nic Nat/Lycett like the last three sides to play West Coast have, and their key posts are really solid at either end.

Not convinced? Need some more safety? No problem.

According to SI the Gold Coast will hold their monstrous +35.5pt Line in 60% of the 10,000 simulated matches.

The Eagles have had a relatively soft run in recent weeks getting the Bulldogs at their worst and an injury-ravaged Cats side (that almost beat them with no key defence and/or ruck division!)

Suns +35.5pts is the bet of the game for mine, include in multiples with confidence.

After all, "60% of the time it works every time" - you know it's a good bet when it's also an Anchorman quote!

With two settled backlines the SI model is predicting a relatively low-scoring game, expecting a total score of 172.25 meaning that the value bet here is to take the Under with an edge of 6.35%.

Glad to be back in alignment with SI to finish what promises to be a ripping Saturday of footy.

Really think the Suns are a solid bet here, particularly at the Line.