Footy Forensics: Eagles v Giants
Last updated: Jul 8, 2018, 3:57AM | Published: Jul 7, 2018, 10:36PM
With both teams devoid of first-choice key forward talent it is tempting at first glance to assume a low-scoring game and jump all over the slight edge that Stats Insider has identified in the Totals market at the Unders.
On closer inspection, there is plenty more to this game than first meets the eye.
Key forwards are dropping like flies in these two sides who have both scrambled at selection to get a workable forward structure in place.
The Giants lost Patton at training mid week while Hopper is also out injured. Perryman and debutant Daniels come in to help plug those gaps.
Big net loss for GWS at selection, particularly Patton who was their last main forward standing. With no Greene, Cameron and now no Patton the Giants will have a difficult time finding marks inside 50 against that Eagles defence.
For the Eagles, they have dropped three in a bit of a statement by the coach with Waterman, Ryan and McInnes all omitted.
Coming in are Vardy, Venables and young key position player Oscar Allen who is able to play at both ends of the ground giving the Eagles good flexibility and allowing McGovern to play forward for stretches.
Weather-wise it is fine and sunny in Perth so should be a cracking game of free-flowing footy.
Of the 10,000 simulations run by the Stats Insider model, West Coast are winning 62% of games which makes them the H2H play at the $1.57 price.
I quite like West Coast today I think they are on the crest of arresting a down month of footy and they will be extra motivated to not drop two home games in a row after being jumped by the Bombers a fortnight ago.
Expect that Lycett and McGovern will play key position forward, possibly Allen as well for stretches. He won the Lark Medal at the U18 champs and went #21 in last year's draft - the kid can play wherever he is on the ground.
The Giants have lost yet another forward and while their midfield is near enough to full strength, kicking goals on the likes of Hurn, Sheppard and Schofield will be tough going.
Lobb played well last week but he is still a ruckman playing forward and if the pressure is there from the Eagles mids on the delivery, GWS will find scoring from their key position players extremely difficult today.
His last fortnight of footy has not shown it, but Scotty Lycett can be a dominant force in that Eagles forward line.
With Vardy being named in the side he and Nic Nat will share the ruck duties which frees Lycett up to be absolutely certain what role he is playing - if his hands and goal kicking are on I don't think it will take the Eagles long to click back into the gear that saw them go 10 straight to the top of the AFL ladder.
I expect the Eagles can cover that +11.5pt Line and win this by 3-4 goals but as far as value goes the Line market is probably the least value today.
Stats Insider has identified an edge in the Totals at the Under and given the forward personnel for both sides it is hard to argue against that but I'll have a try anyway.
If you take away the assumption of defensive dominance then you have two sides full of goal-kicking midfielders who play fast, attacking footy playing on a track that has been very conducive to Over all season.
McGovern can't be at both ends and if he plays forward as expected that helps the case for Overs both ways.
The Giants had 30+ scoring shots against the Hawks last week so they are moving the ball pretty well, whilst the Eagles just look to me like a team that is about come out of their small form slump and click back into gear.
Deviating from Stats Insider in this game slightly. Both keen on the Eagles to win as the bet of the game, but for punters looking for a little more value, I like the Overs and also expect the Eagles to cover the Line.
Eagles by 20+ for mine in a really entertaining game of Sunday afternoon footy.
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