Footy Forensics: Eagles v Bulldogs

After their big win at the MCG against Collingwood last week the West Coast Eagles (and punters) would have had this home game against the beleaguered Bulldogs pencilled in as a big percentage booster, but the rains have arrived in Perth to add uncertainty (and potential value!) to this crucial clash.

The Bureau is forecasting 5-15mm today with a strong chance of showers or a thunderstorm this afternoon so expect as the game approaches that the model will update as the weather becomes more accurate and markets adjust. 

Punters who have confidence in the BOM will no doubt see the early value of the big 39pt Line for the Bulldogs as well as the 142.5pt Unders in the Totals market. 

Stats Insider has this game being dominated by the home side with West Coast winning by 37pts 90-53. 

It is difficult to approach this game without looking at that very gloomy forecast but let's put that aside for the moment and look at the other factors at play.

• The Eagles have lost their superstar ruckman Nic Naitanui but Vardy comes in to maintain that two-ruck combination. They lose the obvious tap work and follow-up tackle pressure of Naitanui but should the weather arrive this won't be that big of a disadvantage. 
• Dom Sheed comes in for some outside run in place of Jake Waterman.
• For the Bulldogs Hayden Crozier's return is a big plus, he has been brilliant off that half-back line in Suckling's absence both offensively and defensively. Tom Boyd also returns to help Schache up forward - big net gain for the Dogs at selection. 
• In dry conditions, the Eagles look to have a considerable advantage at either end of the ground with Kennedy/Darling and McGovern/Hurn but in the wet this advantage evaporates considerably. 
• It is worth remembering the Bulldogs' R9 loss to the Crows in torrential rain in Adelaide. Nothing went right for the Dogs both in terms of accuracy in front of goals and also injuries yet the Crows (who were very accurate) couldn't crack that 40pt mark in the wet. 

Of the 10,000 match simulations run by the Stats Insider model, the Eagles are winning 86% of games which makes the Bulldogs (very) slight value in the H2H market. 

There is not a lot of value in this market but it is worth being aware that the Eagles may drift a little late if the rains arrive so check the match page closer to bounce for the most accurate modelling. 

Here is where we start to find some solid value. The Bulldogs are getting a +39pt Line against the West Coast which is a very steep hill to climb for the home side should this game turn into a contested, scrappy stoppage-fest. 

The Bulldogs do have the ability to play well in that style of contested game and will have learnt plenty of lessons from that loss in the wet in Adelaide. 

With Trengove, Adams and Cordy all down back for the Bulldogs they certainly have the height and size to handle the Eagles forwards in the wet. 

As with the H2H market, you can expect some fluctuations in the Line closer to bounce should the rain really start to fall. 

This is the market that looks most reliable as punters wake in search of some Sunday value. 

This may sound counter-intuitive given the SI model has uncovered zero edge at the 142.5pt Total, but any rain will significantly impact the scoring of both sides. 

As bookmakers try and may just how much rain, if any, will fall this afternoon, an early go at the Under at the 142.5pts will look the 'play of the day' should the Totals market get crunched into 120-130pts. 

Even in dry conditions, the Eagles defence looks more than capable of holding the Bulldogs forward line to a small total whilst the Bulldogs midfielders look equally capable of pressuring the inside 50 kick enough to give their defenders a strong chance of containing Kennedy/Darling. 

Remember there is no Nic Nat so these ruck taps won't be going to a midfielder on the move. 

This match will be heavily dependant on weather which brings with it an element of risk/reward for punters. 

Given the amount of rain forecast it is sensible to assume that it won't be free-flowing footy and if that is the assumption going in, then the Under looks a solid play. 

Dogs at the Line with that 39pt start appeals much stronger if that thunderstorm hits during game time but by the time the radar is accurate I suspect that Line will have shortened considerably. 

Eagles should still get the win but every drop of rain helps the Bulldogs keep it close. 

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