Footy Forensics: Eagles v Bombers

Not much value about in Perth to start Round 14 with the West Coast Eagles short-priced favourites to beat Essendon which is understandable given the Eagles' ladder position and home form this season. 

Punters who look a bit closer though will see there is no Kennedy OR Darling lining up forward for the home side and that fact alone brings the +28.5pt Line for the Bombers right into consideration. 

The Eagles have made three changes, bringing in Schofield and Hutchings for the omitted Brander and Sheed but it is the addition of forward/ruck Fraser McInnes for the in-form Josh Kennedy that has me skeptical about West Coast's ability to blow Essendon away here. 

Essendon remain unchanged from their win over Brisbane two weeks ago.

Stats Insider is predicting a 20pt win for the Eagles on their home patch. With no Zaharakis for Essendon and West Coast bringing in Hutchings to almost certainly shutdown on Zach Merrett, it is easy to see the Eagles being dominant out of the middle.

But smashing a side in the inside 50 count is not smashing a side on the scoreboard. With no Kennedy or Darling, West Coast are forced to rely on some young inexperienced forwards to kick a score. 

Up against the experience of Hurley and Hooker, that task is going to be tough. 

Of the 10,000 simulations run by the Stats Insider model, West Coast are winning a whopping 72% of games. Essendon are winning 28% which makes them value at the $4.50 price in the H2H market. 

I expect the Eagles to drift slightly from this $1.22 price closer to game time as punters realise that West Coast have no key forward line. 

For mine, this market is where the value is. SI has highlighted the slight value in Essendon to hold the +28.5pt Line at 59% and I agree. I'd even give that percentage a little bump given the loss of Kennedy. 

West Coast does have some options though to cover - expect Lycett and Nic Nat to spend more time in the forward line this week and McGovern is also capable of pushing forward and kicking a few goals if needed. 

Despite these options there really is no substitute for losing the best key forward combination in the competition and I do expect that loss to impact West Coast's ability to turn inside 50's into goals. 

Stats Insider has highlighted a slight edge at the Overs but with Kennedy and Darling out and the Eagles backline likely to dominate their opponents, I am reluctant to dip the toes into this market because I see both teams' defences being relatively dominant.

It is only 20pts per team per quarter and Optus Stadium has been a high-scoring venue this season so it will be interesting to see how this market pans out. I'll be staying away though.   

Stats Insider Star Bet in play here with the model liking the Bombers at the line. 

Essendon can trouble the Eagles with some fast, slingshot footy out of their back half but only if they have learnt the lessons from their loss to Richmond - the foot skills and decision making of the Bombers backman and mids will determine the outcome of this game. 

I expect the Eagles to be dominant at centre bounce and around the stoppages and to win the inside 50 count handsomely with the likes of McGovern and Hurn to have big games. 

Despite this, I think the loss of Kennedy and Darling will allow Essendon to be able to absorb the majority of this pressure and to be able to stay in touch with the Eagles on the counter-attack. 

I still can't get that last quarter against St Kilda two weeks ago out of my mind, the Eagles were horrible and were it not for Kennedy might even have lost that game. 

That will be fresh in their mind still and could precipitate a big four-quarter effort regardless of forward line inexperience, but Bombers +28.5pts is still the best bet for mine. Eagles in a close one. 

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