Footy Forensics: Dragons v Eels

These two teams couldn't be further from each other on the NRL ladder heading into this one. 

At the top of the table, the Dragons have been the benchmark of the competition for much of the season so far. Meanwhile, the Eels are playing out one of the most disappointing seasons of any club in recent memory to sit dead last after 15 rounds.

It will come as no surprise that the Stats Insider Model is handing a big win to the Red V.

It's difficult not to feel like the Model is being a tad generous to the Eels here, but the Dragons do have a few hurdles to leap this week.

- Ben Hunt, Jack de Belin and Paul Vaughan are backing up from Origin Game II but more notably, the hangover that followed it for the New South Welshmen.

- Tyson Frizell is out after suffering a knock during Origin.

- Leeson Ah Mau has had a disrupted buildup this week after being stuck in Denver longer than expected.

- James Graham and Gareth Widdop were quick getting home, but still have the effects of the Denver Test to shake.

It's a lot for Mary McGregor to deal with this week; however, the Model isn't worried.

Through 10,000 simulations of the match, the Model has the Dragons winning 70% of them.

The Eels at $3.73 to win carries the value, but it's going to take a lot of convincing to get on it.

Their defensive effort against the Rabbitohs in Round 15 was laughable. For anybody that hadn't backed them, anyway.

Brad Arthur compared it to a reserve-grade standard which was awfully harsh on the lower-grade; they'd have done a lot better.

When you look at St George and how they compare to Souths, everything points to this result being similar to Parramatta's heavy 42-24 defeat the last time out.

The Dragons and Rabbitohs are the top two teams in points scored (Eels - last), running metres (Eels - 13th), they're in the top five in linebreaks (Eels - last), and average set distance (Eels - 14th).

It's like we've seen this match played out before and like the last time, the Model is leaning towards the Eels covering the +10 spread.

As we know, the Eels didn't cover the spread.

They looked good throughout the opening exchanges as Nathan Brown tried to get one over his former team. In the end, though, they were abysmal.

Against this Dragons side playing at home and with their eyes lasered in on September, it's a big ask to have the Eels cover the +10 Line in this one too.

With how inconsistent the Eels are in attack, the Model can't split the Total. 

The 39.5 Total is one of a straight flush on No Bet's for this one from the Model.

But, and it's a big but, the Dragons at -10 is worth a look.

Hindsight is a wonderful thing - something that rarely applies to a punt for the coming week. However, Rabbitohs v Eels is as close as we get to a like-for-like preview of this one.

Having all but seen this game play out a fortnight ago, tip the same result.

Dragons to cover the -10 Line.

We are currently providing free predictions for every NRL game when you make a Stats Insider account. Sign up now to get free access to everything.