Footy Forensics: Dockers v Saints

Plenty of value on offer to finish a whirlwind super Saturday of footy as we head to Perth where we see the Dockers heavy favourites against a St Kilda side that has been woefully disappointing this season. 

St Kilda lose some forward structure and pressure with McCartin and Long but the Dockers lose Nathan Wilson's speed and drive off half back so all in all team changes have come back pretty even. 

The bookies have the Dockers winning this and Stats Insider concurs, the models predicting a 12 point victory to Fremantle 85-73. 

So, that all seems to be that then. Dockers win and pretty comfortably, case closed right? 

Wrong.

Of the 10,000 simulations run by the Stats Insider model the Dockers have come out on top 64% which makes the $3.58 available for the Saints H2H the value play. 

Call me crazy but I think the Saints are a 50/50 to win this one. It's not so much a bounce-back factor in play here rather than a general 'it must be now, this game' type moment for St Kilda and whilst the Saints have a dearth of forward targets, the Dockers are in the same boat with just McCarthy up forward. 

Short of a Fyfe pushing forward for Freo I can see both key defenses being fairly dominant here which should keep St Kilda within striking distance. 

Stats insider agrees, predicting St Kilda will hold the (very generous) +21.5pt Line 60% of simulations. 

With the out's Fremantle have, combined with the levels of desperation I believe St Kilda will reach in this game, the Saints at the Line loom as the bet of the game. 

Totals is where it get's tricky. Optus Stadium has been producing plenty of high-scoring games this season but in this game I am inclined to take the Unders in the absence of lots of dominant tall forward targets. 

Stats Insider has some confidence about the Saints at the Line but has not recommended bets for the H2H market nor the Total Points market despite some small value highlighted above. 

Freo have had a tumultuous week off field and will be looking for a response after that horrible first half against Richmond last Sunday but I keep coming back to the Saints and the fact that if they don't win this, or at least put in across four quarters, they are in new coach territory. 

Saints to push the Dockers but Fyfe to be, well, Fyfe. Dockers by 8.