Footy Forensics: Dockers v Lions

A very interesting betting match between the Dockers and the Lions at Optus this afternoon with key ins and outs for both sides causing a few headaches for punters. 

The loss of Harris Andrews for the Lions cannot be overstated. He has been Brisbane's best defender and in near All-Australian form this past month. They will miss him terribly and his absence will prove a boon to the likes of Brennan Cox and Shane Kirsten up forward for Fremantle. 

Daniel McStay has been recalled for the Lions to plug this gap and he is solid enough, but Brisbane will not get the same intercepting prowess nor offensive drive from McStay. 

Mitch Robinson and Jake Barrett also return for Brisbane, in for Mayes and Bailey - two net wins for the Lions. 

For the home side selection has been equally up and down with Connor Blakely out injured. Blakely's form particularly at home has been huge he will be missed. Michael Walters comes in though so pretty solid replacement. Alex Pearce in for Nyhuis is a net win for Freo who now look really solid down back. 

Fine and sunny conditions in Perth this afternoon, expect some pretty free-flowing footy. 

Of the 10,000 simulations run by Stats Insider, Freo are winning 67% which makes the Lions the value play in the H2H market at the $3.65 quote. 

There is not much between these two teams and if the Brisbane defence holds up it will be very close in the finish so well worth a little look at the Lions given the value there. 

Healthy edge to the Lions at the spread with Brisbane simulated to win 58% of matches with the +22.5pt start. 

So much rests on how Brisbane cover for Harris Andrews. Were he in the side I would be confident Brisbane could win this, but the ripple effect of his loss combined with the Freo at home factor makes that three and a half goal spread a really tricky one to have confidence in. 

Who Banfield goes to (Zorko likely) and how effective he is will also be crucial.

Still, 58% is a sizeable edge in a 50/50 market. 

As much as Freo's defence looks solid, I can see this being an absolute shootout. Both teams have an abundance of small runners who will be able to impact the scoreboard later in the game. 

Optus has proved a ground conducive to high scoring matches so far this season and when you get two teams who play expansive footy (or at least are trying to) then the stars start aligning for an Overs game. 

No bets for Stats Insider in this match. Certainly the most value the model has identified comes for the Lions at the Line. 

According to the model there is a very slight edge for the Unders in the Totals market but I really do expect this to be a bit of shootout particularly late. Can see both sides pushing up past that 85pt mark come final siren. 

Fyfe should dominate regardless and I think Cerra could bob up for a game. If Banfield can keep Zorko quiet, Walters back in - Freo look in the box seat here. 

Dockers by 18. 

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