Footy Forensics: Dockers v Kangaroos
Last updated: May 27, 2018, 2:33AM | Published: May 26, 2018, 1:31AM
Sunday afternoon footy has been a gold(y)mine for punters so far this season and this game in the West looks no different with North at unbelievably juicy odds to beat the Dockers.
The Dockers welcome Hill and Pearce back whilst the Kangas have rested Majak Daw, recalling Durdin which will really release Thompson to play that intercepting role in the backline.
Despite the Dockers being slight favourites, Stats Insider has the Kangaroos winning this one by 7pts. I completely agree.
Ben Jacobs will go to Fyfe and drop him from his 35-40 touch game to a low 20's and that will pretty much stop Freo in its tracks right there.
Add to this the lack of key forward for Freo against a North side with Thompson and Tarrant who both like to intercept, Brown and Waite up forward dominating and big Todd Goldstein playing his 200th game for the club.
There is meant to be rain in Perth for this game which I think further advantages North who have already played wet weather footy this season and have the more experienced side.
I see a lot of things pointing to a North win.
North should have beaten Richmond a fortnight ago. They belted up on the Giants last week. Both those sides easily accounted for the Dockers so far this season. There's your form line right there.
Kangas are great value at the H2H market and Stats Insider agrees.
Of the 10,000 match simulations run, North are winning 59% of games which makes their $1.95 H2H price very attractive.
To the spread and the Kangas offer equally good value to punters with a +2.5pt Line. SI has them winning 62% of games with this slight start and I'd argue that the 4 cents are worth shedding to guard against losing by a point or two particularly in rainy conditions.
This market is a little tricky due to the forecast. If the predicted rain comes then I will be all over the Unders here with two solid defences likely to repel majority of forward entries but if conditions are dry that Line is low enough to be cleared particularly in Perth where scores have been unusually high this season. It's a watch for mine.
Stats Insider likes North at the Line and so do I. Can't believe they are getting a start here. Enjoy it!
Kangas by 14.
