Footy Forensics: Demons vs Magpies

Two in-form teams meet at the MCG in front of what could be a crowd of 90,000 for a Queen's Birthday Monday clash that looks like going down to the wire. 

On the surface, there is very little value about here with markets seemingly spot on with Melbourne priced at the $1.60 mark H2H and giving Collingwood +11.5pt at the Line. 

In teams news Melbourne has lost Jake Lever and dropped Tim Smith, bringing in Cam Pederson and Joel Smith. Pederson's inclusion will allow McDonald to spend more time in defence if needed. 

The Magpies get Jeremy Howe back which is a huge in, coming in for the youngster Flynn Appleby who drops out of the 22. 

Let's take a closer look at the three main markets to see if we can find some value under the surface. 

Of the 10,000 simulations run by the Stats Insider model, Melbourne are winning 63% of games simulated which makes them the slight value play in the H2H market at the $1.60. 

Collingwood have played some sensational footy this season so far but it has largely all been on the back of Brodie Grundy's dominance all around the ground. In this game, not only can Gawn go with him around the park but he is a better tap ruckman and can sneak forward himself and impact the scoreboard. 

Collingwood relies heavily on Grundy in the clearances as well which is another area where Melbourne can gain the ascendancy. 

With Gawn curtailing Grundy's influence without himself dropping off in output I can see the Pies being on the backfoot for most of the afternoon. If the Dees take their chances in front of goals I think that $1.60 H2H price is decent value. 

Stats Insider can't discern even one percentage point of value at the spread which is a sign in itself to steer clear. 

In a game that I expect to be very close come final siren, I am tempted to take the Magpies with the +11.5pt start but I am very concerned about how Gawn's dominance will have a domino effect so I am steering clear at the Line.

The SI model has identified some value at the Totals with the Under at 55%. 

178.5pts is a high Total to hit for two teams that will be 100% committed to defence for the whole four quarters. 

Remember there could be close to 100,000 people at the G watching this and that kind of atmosphere tends to lend itself to large chunks of game time where few if any goals are kicked. 

45 point quarters is almost 4 goals per team per quarter so I am with Stats Insider and taking the Under as the best value bet of the game. 

No star bets for Stats Insider in this one with a distinct lack of value the theme of the game. 

Punters wanting some action on this monster Queen's Birthday clash should take a good look at the Under though. 

These two teams are high-scoring teams usually hence the large Total Points mark of 178.5 but in this specific game the pressure will be extreme and that kind of cauldron atmosphere always lends itself to low scoring games. 

Dees by a kick or two in a low-scoring ripper!