Footy Forensics - Demons v Tigers

Tiger fever is spreading like a wildfire out of control despite the defending champs coming off an easy, lethargy-inducing third-gear win against the Lions last start.

Will be very (very!) different here against a Demons side that have been whacked all week by everyone and anyone for their capitulation to the Hawks last weekend.

As you may already be sensing I'm liking the value about the Demons H2H price of $2.50 but before we get into what Stats Insider is saying let's take a look at some intangibles that I feel will impact this ANZAC Day eve clash;

• Tigers Ins and Outs: Lose three key personnel in Caddy, Graham and Vlastuin, bringing in Higgins, Lloyd, Nathan Broad. Caddy is a strong mark and kicks goals, Graham a great tackler/run-with midfielder and Vlastuin has been solid across half back. Big net loss for Richmond.
• Melbourne Ins and Outs: No Lewis (hand), Bugg, Frost, Fritsch (all omitted) all out for Jayden Hunt, Billy Stretch, Dom Tyson and Sam Weideman. Net gain for the Dees who get some leg-speed and some midfield polish back into the side.
• So far in 2018 teams have responded incredibly well to copping a whack in the media and internally from coaching staff. Bounce back factor well and truly in play.
• Dees match up well with the Tigers forward who lack a gorilla key forward which is the type of player that really troubles Melbourne.

Despite my (quite unnerving) love of Melbourne in this game the Stats Insider models have stuck with the Tigers and you can understand why on last-start form.

Of the 10,000 match simulations run SI has the Tigers winning 64% which does make their $1.55 H2H price appealing.

I just can't take the Tigers on the back of those outs, with bounce-back in play, at those odds.

I think this game will be extremely close so I really do like the $2.50 H2H price for Melbourne who are not only looking for a response from last week but are getting into must-win territory to stay in touch with the top eight.

Naturally if I like the Dees H2H their Line of +11.5pts also appeals. Yes it's less than two goals and yes it is always possible that Melbourne could wind up 40pts down in a quarter against the best surge footy team in the business, but this week with the bounce back and ANZAC pressure both in play I just can't see the Dees dropping their guard at all.

Total Points is a different story.

This 174.5pts looks very doable at first glance, both sides have been scoring freely and have multiple avenues to goal (apart from the Dees last week).

But this game with the factors discussed above could really see some prolonged periods of no scoring which makes it hard to hit a Total Points line this high. Staying away.

Stats Insider has identified that the Tigers are the slight value play in both H2H and Line markets according to their projections, but as you can see a lack of stars indicates that the value/confidence is very slight.

With the intangibles discussed above I am more than prepared to back against the defending champs and take the Demons in a game I can see being a redemption game of sorts for the footy club.

Dees by 14.