Footy Forensics: Demons v Suns
Last updated: Aug 4, 2018, 10:21PM | Published: Aug 4, 2018, 10:04PM
May, Thompson, Swallow and Lyons all out for the Gold Coast against a rampaging Demons at the MCG - for what the Suns are about to receive, may punters be eternally grateful!
Whenever Gold Coast head into a game without one of their key defenders they are pushing it uphill to stop the opposition from scoring, particularly when said opponent has quality key forwards.
Today at the G the Suns are short nor one but BOTH of their first string key defenders and their B team (Leslie and Spencer) have been cutting their teeth in the NEAFL which makes them more like the C team.
Compounding this further is the presence of two gun key forwards for Melbourne in Hogan and McDonald - the Dees will pile on the points here and the model has identified the Overs as the bet to take advantage of in what looks like a high-scoring schelacking.
When these two sides met in R8 at the Gabba there were 223pts scored after the Dees went BANG in the second half, putting on 87 points after half time to bury the Suns.
May and Thompson both played.
These two sides have a decent history of playing in high-scoring games. Four of their last five clashes have resulted in over 200 game points (220pt average!)
It is rare to see a team not be favoured by the model with such a massive spread to hold and the small 3% edge about the Suns at the +70.5pts should tell you more about how dominant the Dees are expected to be than anything else.
The Suns have lost by an average of 40pts to the Dees in their last five games, and that includes a close 66-64pt loss in 2016.
Without May and Thompson to contain Hogan and McDonald, and without Swallow and Lyons to attempt to stop the rot in the middle, it is highly likely that that 70pt spread is in very real trouble today.
Punters who jumped on the early markets at -64.5pts for the Dees will be very happy with themselves. Expect it blows out to mid 70's prior to bounce and even that is in all sorts.
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