Footy Forensics - Crows v Suns

Which Suns side will turn up in Adelaide tonight? Which Crows side for that matter.

Answering these two key questions will help us frame our betting options in a game that presents plenty of value.

The Crows are coming off a dominant win away from home against the swans and that is the main reason they are so short in the H2H market / giving up such a large line to the visiting Suns.

Gold Coast were better last week with their pressure but they did not travel well to Perth and if they bring their Eagles effort to this game it will be a three-figure thumping.

Some intangibles first;

• Crows Ins/Outs: Matt Crouch returns early from a hamstring issue. At his best he will be a huge in for the Crows who badly lack midfield class sans Sloane. David Mackay also returns but going out are two crucial defenders for the Crows in Kelly and Hartigan.
• Suns welcome back another prime midfield accumulator in Michael Barlow as well as Max Spencer to help them cover the Crows tall forward line but they lose key half forward link/pressure man Darcy MacPherson
• The defensive out's for the Crows will restrict their ability to play a lose marking defender against the Suns, expect Otten gets that job initially if anyone and they can always throw McGovern down back if needed.
• Fine and sunny in Adelaide today

Ok let's take a look at the H2H market now and the Suns are understandably huge $7.50 outsiders.

Of the 10,000 match simulations run by the Stats Insider Model the Suns are winning 23% of games which makes their price extremely appealing in terms of it's value.

I can't see them winning this despite the Crows depleted defensive stocks, they just lack the whole-team pressure required to knock the Crows off their game as Collingwood and Richmond showed in previous weeks against Adelaide.

That monster H2H price has to come with a large Line thoug7h and it is here that the Suns have some appeal.

48.5pts is a monstrous head start in today's footy particularly with so many teams failing to nail their shots on goal.

The SI model has the Suns winning 66% of games at that 48.5pt line which makes the Suns with the +48.5pts the smart play in this game.

I tend to agree with these stats - I can see the Suns not getting flogged in two out of three games and with a few question marks on the Crows defensive depth as well as a few niggles from the Adelaide midfield (Crouch hammy, Mackay concussion etc) the Suns only need to bring effort and composure to hold this line.

This 180.5pt Total Points market is bang on. I can see the Crows clearing 100pts pretty easily here but the unknown is the Suns. If they kick straight they could get up to that 80-90pt mark but if their first few chances miss they tend to be anchored to a really low game score.

Missing the Under/Over and happy to just take the Line I think.

Stats Insider agrees. As we saw at the top of this article the SI model has the Crows winning by 27 so they are all over the 48.5pts on offer at the line.

The reality here is that the Suns will get flogged by three figures is they dont bring their pressure and composure for the whole four quarters, but they learnt these lessons in the West against the Eagles so you have to think they will have a better system in place here.

Crows by 30-40 in a game that blows out late after being close at half time.