Footy Forensics: Crows v Giants
Last updated: Jun 3, 2018, 1:00AM | Published: Jun 1, 2018, 7:27AM
If you play footy for the Adelaide Crows there is one thing you just do not do and that is get towelled up in embarrassing fashion to the tune of 100 points. The Crows response after last week's loss to the Dees will determine how much value is to be found in the final game of Round 11.
Crows get Paul Seedsman back he is a big inclusion. Murphy returns as well as a pressure forward. Phil Davis returns for the Giants to face his old side.
Stats Insider has the Crows winning this by 16pts 91-75 which for mine looks pretty spot on if we assume that the Giants will bring their best. Anything short of that and the Crows will sink the boot in here you feel after really smarting from that loss last week.
Back in front of their home crowd who will demand constant redemption every second of the game, Adelaide can be expected to be razor focused from the opening bounce.
Of the 10,000 match simulations run by the Stats Insider model, Adelaide are winning 68% of games which makes the Giants (very) slight favourites at the $3.50 price.
I will borderline eat my hat if the Crows don't win this so I do think there is some value about the home side H2H, particularly in multiples.
It gets very interesting here. That +22.5 points is a decent Line to give the Giants. Stats Insider likes the visitors to hold the line 57% of games. Personally I don't see much value in either given the bounce-back factor of the Crows combined with the inconsistency of the Giants.
Totals look bang on. SI model slightly leaning under (53%) whereas I would have leaned the other way slightly but either way, I'm not taking it with any confidence.
Crows defensive pride is the variable. Adelaide will score pretty freely against the Giants but they could be very miserly down back, or it could open up to be a shootout. Staying away. 
For almost a month Sunday afternoon has been punting paradise but when a good ball comes along you have to know how to let it go through to the keeper.
I expect Crows to win this so I don't mind the H2H price but it doesn't offer a lot of value.
Crows by 20.
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