Footy Forensics: Crows v Cats

The recent form of Geelong has been good enough to have confidence that the Cats are great value tonight but in the back of punters' minds is the looming question - just how long can the Crows under-perform? 

Both sides need this win desperately to stay in finals contention so Adelaide's home ground advantage doesn't mean too much tonight, I expect a four-quarter effort from both teams. 

At some point Adelaide will click back into top gear but they have had plenty of chances in recent weeks and have been found wanting, whilst Geelong's form has been very solid. 

Both sides have a host of changes at selection: Geelong have brought in Menzel, Simpson and Buzza for Fogarty, Murdoch and Taylor who all go out injured. 

Net loss for the Cats here. Menzel is so injury prone and losing Taylor limits coach Chris Scott's flexibility. Expect Buzza to play that forward/ruck role.

For the Crows, Eddie Betts returns along with Rory Atkins, Lachlan Murphy and Riley Knight. Richard Douglas (injured), Poholke, Fogarty and Hampton (all omitted) the ones to make way. 

A big net win for the Crows at selection with Betts returning. Their forward line is now almost full-strength again and their midfield of Gibbs/Crouch/Sloane have had two games together now. 

Fine and sunny weather in the city of churches so expect 50,000 plus cheering on a very hot footy.

To the H2H market first and we find that even the bookies have this at coin-flip status. 

Of the 10,000 simulations run by the Stats Insider model, Geelong is winning 55% which makes their H2H price of $1.86 the slight value play. 

I am leaning towards the Cats as well, mostly on form but also how Cats coach Chris Scott has been able to shutdown on Laird in recent seasons and not allow him to roam around junking up/setting up play for the Crows. 

Suspect that Sloane and Laird will both have company for the night and if those two Cats do their job well it is difficult to see Adelaide winning despite their rejuvenated forward line. 

The third reason I like Geelong is their habit of playing Adelaide Oval really well in recent seasons. Cats H2H the bet of the game for mine, but it is the best of a murky bunch. 

In a game that is expected to come down to the last few kicks, I don't see any value at the Line tonight - would be a quick way to take a few years off your life with a four-quarter sweat that could go either way with 5 to go. 

Stats Insider agrees with simulations very close to a 50/50 split. Slight edge to the Cats.

Adelaide does have an advantage in their forward line and if Jacobs can get over Stanley which I expect him to, the Crows forwards will have their fair share of supply. 

Mind you with Talia's niggling injury it could easily be a case of Hawkins/Dangerfield dominating - there are so many unknowns tonight. 

I don't see any value in this market whatsoever so moving on. 

As you can see the model has found even less value in the Totals market with the 158.5 mark being almost exactly 50/50 according to the SI simulations. 

Both these teams can play fast free flowing footy but the situation tonight will likely mean a very contested style of game similar to the one in Sydney last Thursday that saw the Cats beat the Swans. 

Gut says Unders is the play but again, there is so little value about here I'll be shouldering arms and waiting for more juicier bets throughout the weekend. 

Stats Insider could not be saying it any clearer - there is next to no value about for this game. 

The form of the Cats does warrant a decent look at that H2H price of $1.86 and be aware that price could drift late as Crows supporters jump on prior to bounce. 

I am very confident the Cats will stick around in this one, it is the inconsistent form of Adelaide that make this game so tough to get a bead on. 

Have to go with the exposed form and even if Adelaide do click I still like the Cats to win this by a few kicks in a low-scorer.

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