Footy Forensics: Crows v Bulldogs

Confidence in the Crows ability to record a strong home win receded again this morning with the Line for the Western Bulldogs coming in a further 2 points to +25.5.

Those savvy punters who logged into Stats Insider mid-week and got amongst the +34.5pts on offer on Wednesday will be all smiles heading into what looks a really even clash at the Adelaide Oval. 

Crows lose four crucial cogs in Crouch, Brown, McGovern and Walker. All four are difficult to replace given the roles they play. The experience of Gibson and Hartigan will help and youngsters Murphy and Fogarty are going to be guns but certainly a big net loss for Adelaide. 

Bulldogs have dropped three youngsters and brought in Trengove, Roughead and captain Easton Wood. Huge net gain for the Dogs who have been in great form aside from their shots on goal accuracy. 

Stats Insider has this game going fairly comfortably to the Crows. I am not so sure. All three of those Dogs ins will have an impact. Can see Roughy really taking it to Jacobs whilst Wood will be loving no Walker there. Look for him to cut off plenty of Crows forward forays. 

If the Dogs kick straight in front of goal it will be much closer than the 21pts the models have predicted. 

Of the 10,000 match simulations run by Stats Insider, the Crows have come out on top in a whopping 72% of games, making their $1.35 H2H price the slight value play. 

After being shown up in the Showdown the Crows will be a determined side tonight and whilst they are down on talent, their spine is still largely intact with plenty of quality still present (Gibbs, Laird, Lynch etc). 

For mine the Crows a just a little too short to be interested in H2H and as for the Bulldogs, they are also a little too short given their horrible accuracy in front of goal all year. 

This is where we start to see some value. As mentioned above the Dogs Line started at +34.5pts mid-week which was a great play for those who took it.

At +25.5pts the Dogs are still a value play at the Line I think especially given the Crows poor second halves at home this season. If they nail their first couple of chances in front of goals this game will be still up for grabs late in the fourth, it all hinges on their first few kicks. 

It is very (very!) difficult to consider overs in a Bulldogs game. They just aren't kicking the scores required to take it with confidence. Dogs defense has been bolstered here and the Crows forward line loses Walker. Strong case can be made to take Unders with confidence here. 

Like Stats Insider I think the Crows win this, by 2-3 goals, in a low-scoring game but like the SI model I don't have an abundance of confidence given the variable of the Bulldogs set shot inaccuracy. 

Crows by 12 with Gibbs the difference.